Trader consensus on the 2026 Bolivia gubernatorial elections reflects a fragmented field, with anti-MAS parties like Libre (44%), Popular Alliance (39.5%), Unity Bloc (38.5%), APB Súmate (37%), and PDC (36.5%) clustered tightly, while MAS-IPSP trails at 6.9% amid its ongoing Arce-Morales schism that has weakened its departmental dominance. Recent developments, including candidate registrations and early polls showing no party poised to sweep the nine governorships, underscore local dynamics in key regions like Santa Cruz (APB Súmate strength) and La Paz (MAS remnants). This keeps probabilities bunched, but breakthroughs could emerge from alliances, scandals, or national momentum ahead of the March 2025 vote date, potentially favoring a unified opposition bloc.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2026 Élections au poste de gouverneur de Bolivie : vainqueur du parti
2026 Élections au poste de gouverneur de Bolivie : vainqueur du parti
Autonomie pour la Bolivie – Súmate (APB Súmate) 37%
Mouvement vers le socialisme (MAS-IPSP) 8.0%
Libre – Liberté et Démocratie (LIBRE) 0
Alliance Populaire (AP) 0
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.

Autonomie pour la Bolivie – Súmate (APB Súmate)
37%

Mouvement vers le socialisme (MAS-IPSP)
7%

Libre – Liberté et Démocratie (LIBRE)
43%

Alliance Populaire (AP)
40%

Parti démocrate-chrétien (PDC)
37%

Bloc d'Unité (UNIDAD)
39%
Autonomie pour la Bolivie – Súmate (APB Súmate) 37%
Mouvement vers le socialisme (MAS-IPSP) 8.0%
Libre – Liberté et Démocratie (LIBRE) 0
Alliance Populaire (AP) 0
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.

Autonomie pour la Bolivie – Súmate (APB Súmate)
37%

Mouvement vers le socialisme (MAS-IPSP)
7%

Libre – Liberté et Démocratie (LIBRE)
43%

Alliance Populaire (AP)
40%

Parti démocrate-chrétien (PDC)
37%

Bloc d'Unité (UNIDAD)
39%
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2026 Bolivia gubernatorial elections reflects a fragmented field, with anti-MAS parties like Libre (44%), Popular Alliance (39.5%), Unity Bloc (38.5%), APB Súmate (37%), and PDC (36.5%) clustered tightly, while MAS-IPSP trails at 6.9% amid its ongoing Arce-Morales schism that has weakened its departmental dominance. Recent developments, including candidate registrations and early polls showing no party poised to sweep the nine governorships, underscore local dynamics in key regions like Santa Cruz (APB Súmate strength) and La Paz (MAS remnants). This keeps probabilities bunched, but breakthroughs could emerge from alliances, scandals, or national momentum ahead of the March 2025 vote date, potentially favoring a unified opposition bloc.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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