Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around Elon Musk posting 280-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026, with 300-319 and 320-339 ranges tied at 11.5% implied probability, mirroring his consistent recent weekly output of roughly 40 posts per day on X. This tight race stems from Musk's steady social media cadence over the past month—sustained by Tesla updates, xAI announcements, and political commentary—showing no verified slowdown or surge despite high-profile engagements like recent earnings calls. Key differentiators include potential spikes from confirmed events such as SpaceX launches or government policy responses, versus lulls if executive priorities intensify, underscoring the market's pricing of historical patterns amid a year-out timeline rife with uncertainty in celebrity posting habits.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$3,915,138 Vol.
$3,915,138 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
9%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
9%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
3%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$3,915,138 Vol.
$3,915,138 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
9%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
9%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
3%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around Elon Musk posting 280-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026, with 300-319 and 320-339 ranges tied at 11.5% implied probability, mirroring his consistent recent weekly output of roughly 40 posts per day on X. This tight race stems from Musk's steady social media cadence over the past month—sustained by Tesla updates, xAI announcements, and political commentary—showing no verified slowdown or surge despite high-profile engagements like recent earnings calls. Key differentiators include potential spikes from confirmed events such as SpaceX launches or government policy responses, versus lulls if executive priorities intensify, underscoring the market's pricing of historical patterns amid a year-out timeline rife with uncertainty in celebrity posting habits.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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