Uncertainty surrounding Harvey Weinstein's overturned New York conviction drives fragmented trader sentiment, with no prison time at 27% implied probability edging out 10-20 years (24%) and 20-30 years (20%), reflecting the #MeToo-era producer's precarious legal position. His 16-year California rape conviction remains intact, anchoring mid-range odds, but the April appellate reversal—citing prejudicial testimony—sparks bets on potential release via appeals or health grounds amid recent hospitalizations for complications from cancer surgery. New York retrial, now eyed for spring 2025 following September's fresh sex crime indictment plea, plus his age (72), heighten volatility; traders weigh stacked sentences against prosecutorial hurdles and guild-like industry backlash waning post-conviction snubs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUne peine de prison pour Harvey Weinstein ?
Une peine de prison pour Harvey Weinstein ?
Aucune peine de prison 27.1%
10-20 ans 23.6%
20-30 ans 20.1%
<5 ans 15.7%
$679,364 Vol.
$679,364 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Aucune peine de prison
27%
<5 ans
16%
5-10 ans
9%
10-20 ans
24%
20-30 ans
20%
Plus de 30 ans
7%
Aucune peine de prison 27.1%
10-20 ans 23.6%
20-30 ans 20.1%
<5 ans 15.7%
$679,364 Vol.
$679,364 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Aucune peine de prison
$291,208 Vol.
27%
<5 ans
$48,123 Vol.
16%
5-10 ans
$34,409 Vol.
9%
10-20 ans
$120,672 Vol.
24%
20-30 ans
$150,799 Vol.
20%
Plus de 30 ans
$34,154 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Uncertainty surrounding Harvey Weinstein's overturned New York conviction drives fragmented trader sentiment, with no prison time at 27% implied probability edging out 10-20 years (24%) and 20-30 years (20%), reflecting the #MeToo-era producer's precarious legal position. His 16-year California rape conviction remains intact, anchoring mid-range odds, but the April appellate reversal—citing prejudicial testimony—sparks bets on potential release via appeals or health grounds amid recent hospitalizations for complications from cancer surgery. New York retrial, now eyed for spring 2025 following September's fresh sex crime indictment plea, plus his age (72), heighten volatility; traders weigh stacked sentences against prosecutorial hurdles and guild-like industry backlash waning post-conviction snubs.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$679,364Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025Marché ouvert
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Uncertainty surrounding Harvey Weinstein's overturned New York conviction drives fragmented trader sentiment, with no prison time at 27% implied probability edging out 10-20 years (24%) and 20-30 years (20%), reflecting the #MeToo-era producer's precarious legal position. His 16-year California rape conviction remains intact, anchoring mid-range odds, but the April appellate reversal—citing prejudicial testimony—sparks bets on potential release via appeals or health grounds amid recent hospitalizations for complications from cancer surgery. New York retrial, now eyed for spring 2025 following September's fresh sex crime indictment plea, plus his age (72), heighten volatility; traders weigh stacked sentences against prosecutorial hurdles and guild-like industry backlash waning post-conviction snubs.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$679,364Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025Marché ouvert
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Uncertainty surrounding Harvey Weinstein's overturned New York conviction drives fragmented trader sentiment, with no prison time at 27% implied probability edging out 10-20 years (24%) and 20-30 years (20%), reflecting the #MeToo-era producer's precarious legal position. His 16-year California rape conviction remains intact, anchoring mid-range odds, but the April appellate reversal—citing prejudicial testimony—sparks bets on potential release via appeals or health grounds amid recent hospitalizations for complications from cancer surgery. New York retrial, now eyed for spring 2025 following September's fresh sex crime indictment plea, plus his age (72), heighten volatility; traders weigh stacked sentences against prosecutorial hurdles and guild-like industry backlash waning post-conviction snubs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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