Market icon
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Prochaine élection sénatoriale au Brésil : la plupart des sièges occupés

Market icon
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Prochaine élection sénatoriale au Brésil : la plupart des sièges occupés

PL 61%

MDB 17.0%

PDT 14.7%

UNIÃO 8.7%

Polymarket
NEW

PL 61%

MDB 17.0%

PDT 14.7%

UNIÃO 8.7%

Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

PL

$0 Vol.

67%

Market icon

MDB

$0 Vol.

9%

Market icon

PDT

$0 Vol.

15%

Market icon

UNIÃO

$0 Vol.

9%

Market icon

PSDB

$0 Vol.

5%

Market icon

PODEMOS

$0 Vol.

5%

Market icon

PSB

$0 Vol.

7%

Market icon

PP

$0 Vol.

7%

Market icon

PSD

$0 Vol.

2%

Market icon

PT

$0 Vol.

7%

Market icon

NOVO

$0 Vol.

10%

Market icon

REPUBLICANOS

$0 Vol.

9%

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 67% probability to hold the most seats after Brazil's 2026 Senate election, propelled by the party's dominant showing in the October 2024 municipal elections, where PL led in pre-candidacies for mayor and city council positions nationwide, capturing significant center-right momentum amid weakened left-wing turnout. This performance, coupled with recent polling projections estimating PL gains in up to a third of the 54 contested seats under the state's majoritarian system (two senators per state), positions it ahead of PDT's regional strongholds in the Northeast (15%) and NOVO's urban libertarian appeal (10%). MDB, REPUBLICANOS, and UNIÃO hover below 10% on fragmented center-right support, while PT lags at 7% post-municipal setbacks. Coalition negotiations and high-profile candidate announcements could still influence outcomes before the October 2026 vote.

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.

This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.

All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
Oct 4, 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 67% probability to hold the most seats after Brazil's 2026 Senate election, propelled by the party's dominant showing in the October 2024 municipal elections, where PL led in pre-candidacies for mayor and city council positions nationwide, capturing significant center-right momentum amid weakened left-wing turnout. This performance, coupled with recent polling projections estimating PL gains in up to a third of the 54 contested seats under the state's majoritarian system (two senators per state), positions it ahead of PDT's regional strongholds in the Northeast (15%) and NOVO's urban libertarian appeal (10%). MDB, REPUBLICANOS, and UNIÃO hover below 10% on fragmented center-right support, while PT lags at 7% post-municipal setbacks. Coalition negotiations and high-profile candidate announcements could still influence outcomes before the October 2026 vote.

Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 67% probability to hold the most seats after Brazil's 2026 Senate election, propelled by the party's dominant showing in the October 2024 municipal elections, where PL led in pre-candidacies for mayor and city council positions nationwide, capturing significant center-right momentum amid weakened left-wing turnout. This performance, coupled with recent polling projections estimating PL gains in up to a third of the 54 contested seats under the state's majoritarian system (two senators per state), positions it ahead of PDT's regional strongholds in the Northeast (15%) and NOVO's urban libertarian appeal (10%). MDB, REPUBLICANOS, and UNIÃO hover below 10% on fragmented center-right support, while PT lags at 7% post-municipal setbacks. Coalition negotiations and high-profile candidate announcements could still influence outcomes before the October 2026 vote.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Prochaine élection sénatoriale au Brésil : la plupart des sièges occupés » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « PL » à 67%, suivi de « PDT » à 15%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 67¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 67% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Prochaine élection sénatoriale au Brésil : la plupart des sièges occupés » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Feb 11, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Prochaine élection sénatoriale au Brésil : la plupart des sièges occupés », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Prochaine élection sénatoriale au Brésil : la plupart des sièges occupés » est « PL » à 67%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 67% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « PDT » à 15%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Prochaine élection sénatoriale au Brésil : la plupart des sièges occupés » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.