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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu

Market icon
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu

DMK 78%

ADMK 16.0%

TVK 7.3%

BSP <1%

Polymarket

$160,408 Vol.

DMK 78%

ADMK 16.0%

TVK 7.3%

BSP <1%

Polymarket

$160,408 Vol.

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DMK

$13,683 Vol.

78%

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ADMK

$12,674 Vol.

16%

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TVK

$21,492 Vol.

7%

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BSP

$12,144 Vol.

<1%

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AITC

$17,467 Vol.

<1%

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CPI(M)

$17,873 Vol.

<1%

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DMDK

$11,968 Vol.

<1%

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NPEP

$11,938 Vol.

<1%

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BJP

$14,135 Vol.

<1%

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NCP

$10,847 Vol.

<1%

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CPI

$0 Vol.

<1%

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INC

$16,186 Vol.

<1%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus strongly favors DMK at 77.5% implied probability to win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly elections across 234 single-member constituencies, bolstered by the incumbent party's alliance sweeping all 39 Lok Sabha seats in April 2024 and sustained popularity from welfare initiatives like the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam cash transfer scheme for women. AIADMK trails at 16%, hampered by internal factionalism following J Jayalalithaa's death and ongoing leadership disputes between Edappadi K Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam. Actor Vijay's TVK, launched in February 2024, holds 7.7% amid fan mobilization but faces challenges as a new entrant without proven electoral machinery. No major developments in the past week; focus remains on potential pre-poll alliances and early surveys, with the election timeline set for April-May 2026.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$160,408
Date de fin
Apr 23, 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus strongly favors DMK at 77.5% implied probability to win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly elections across 234 single-member constituencies, bolstered by the incumbent party's alliance sweeping all 39 Lok Sabha seats in April 2024 and sustained popularity from welfare initiatives like the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam cash transfer scheme for women. AIADMK trails at 16%, hampered by internal factionalism following J Jayalalithaa's death and ongoing leadership disputes between Edappadi K Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam. Actor Vijay's TVK, launched in February 2024, holds 7.7% amid fan mobilization but faces challenges as a new entrant without proven electoral machinery. No major developments in the past week; focus remains on potential pre-poll alliances and early surveys, with the election timeline set for April-May 2026.

Trader consensus strongly favors DMK at 77.5% implied probability to win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly elections across 234 single-member constituencies, bolstered by the incumbent party's alliance sweeping all 39 Lok Sabha seats in April 2024 and sustained popularity from welfare initiatives like the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam cash transfer scheme for women. AIADMK trails at 16%, hampered by internal factionalism following J Jayalalithaa's death and ongoing leadership disputes between Edappadi K Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam. Actor Vijay's TVK, launched in February 2024, holds 7.7% amid fan mobilization but faces challenges as a new entrant without proven electoral machinery. No major developments in the past week; focus remains on potential pre-poll alliances and early surveys, with the election timeline set for April-May 2026.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « DMK » à 78%, suivi de « ADMK » à 16%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 78¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 78% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu » a généré $160.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 23, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu » est « DMK » à 78%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 78% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « ADMK » à 16%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.