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Monde·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise

Market icon
Monde·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise

PQ 63%

PLQ 26%

CAQ 11%

PCQ <1%

Polymarket

$248,634 Vol.

PQ 63%

PLQ 26%

CAQ 11%

PCQ <1%

Polymarket

$248,634 Vol.

Market icon

PQ

$33,393 Vol.

63%

Market icon

PLQ

$31,448 Vol.

26%

Market icon

CAQ

$29,623 Vol.

11%

Market icon

PCQ

$113,560 Vol.

1%

Market icon

PVQ

$0 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

QS

$40,609 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 63% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, driven by aggregator projections like Qc125 and 338Canada showing PQ securing around 63 seats—a majority—in a first-past-the-post system, despite a tight popular vote race. The latest Léger poll from early March pegged PQ at 31% and PLQ at 30% among decided voters, with PQ dominating francophone regions outside Montreal where PLQ draws non-francophone support. Incumbent CAQ's collapse to 13% follows Premier Legault's January resignation and four straight byelection losses to PQ, fueling 72% desire for change. PLQ's new leader Charles Milliard narrowed the gap post-February leadership win, but PQ's regional efficiency sustains its edge ahead of the October 2026 vote.

Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 63% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, driven by aggregator projections like Qc125 and 338Canada showing PQ securing around 63 seats—a majority—in a first-past-the-post system, despite a tight popular vote race. The latest Léger poll from early March pegged PQ at 31% and PLQ at 30% among decided voters, with PQ dominating francophone regions outside Montreal where PLQ draws non-francophone support. Incumbent CAQ's collapse to 13% follows Premier Legault's January resignation and four straight byelection losses to PQ, fueling 72% desire for change. PLQ's new leader Charles Milliard narrowed the gap post-February leadership win, but PQ's regional efficiency sustains its edge ahead of the October 2026 vote.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 63% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, driven by aggregator projections like Qc125 and 338Canada showing PQ securing around 63 seats—a majority—in a first-past-the-post system, despite a tight popular vote race. The latest Léger poll from early March pegged PQ at 31% and PLQ at 30% among decided voters, with PQ dominating francophone regions outside Montreal where PLQ draws non-francophone support. Incumbent CAQ's collapse to 13% follows Premier Legault's January resignation and four straight byelection losses to PQ, fueling 72% desire for change. PLQ's new leader Charles Milliard narrowed the gap post-February leadership win, but PQ's regional efficiency sustains its edge ahead of the October 2026 vote.

Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 63% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, driven by aggregator projections like Qc125 and 338Canada showing PQ securing around 63 seats—a majority—in a first-past-the-post system, despite a tight popular vote race. The latest Léger poll from early March pegged PQ at 31% and PLQ at 30% among decided voters, with PQ dominating francophone regions outside Montreal where PLQ draws non-francophone support. Incumbent CAQ's collapse to 13% follows Premier Legault's January resignation and four straight byelection losses to PQ, fueling 72% desire for change. PLQ's new leader Charles Milliard narrowed the gap post-February leadership win, but PQ's regional efficiency sustains its edge ahead of the October 2026 vote.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « PQ » à 63%, suivi de « PLQ » à 26%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 63¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 63% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise » a généré $248.6K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 2, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise » est « PQ » à 63%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 63% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « PLQ » à 26%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.