The October 5, 2026, Quebec provincial election delivered a decisive victory for the Parti Québécois, which secured the most seats in the 127-member National Assembly and is projected to form a minority government under leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. Fragmented opposition votes among the CAQ, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire enabled the PQ to translate roughly 28 percent of the popular vote into enough ridings for power, ending eight years of CAQ rule and marking the sovereigntist party's return since 2012. Traders reflect this outcome in the market's near-certain pricing for PQ. Late seat adjustments from remaining counts or successful challenges in tight ridings remain the primary variables that could alter final standings before official certification.