Trader consensus prices a razor-thin Republican Senate majority after the November 2026 midterms, with probabilities clustered tightly around 47-50 seats amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging 3-4 Senate flips against the White House party since 2000. Defending a 53-47 edge, Republicans face vulnerabilities in four Cook Political Report toss-ups (two each party) plus leans in battlegrounds like open New Hampshire (Lean D) and Minnesota (Likely D), while early March polls show Democrat Roy Cooper leading by 8 in North Carolina and GOP challenger Ken Paxton up 5-8 over John Cornyn in Texas runoff. Intra-party primaries and generic ballot trends could widen spreads, alongside nominee strength in Ohio's tight special election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour51 seats
≤47 26%
49 21%
48 14%
50 13%
$2,044,173 Vol.
$2,044,173 Vol.
≤47
26%
48
14%
49
21%
50
13%
51
10%
52
7%
53
7%
54
3%
55
2%
56
1%
57+
1%
≤47 26%
49 21%
48 14%
50 13%
$2,044,173 Vol.
$2,044,173 Vol.
≤47
$27,243 Vol.
26%
48
$14,717 Vol.
14%
49
$10,628 Vol.
21%
50
$59,581 Vol.
13%
51
$154,206 Vol.
10%
52
$502,407 Vol.
7%
53
$10,259 Vol.
7%
54
$706,168 Vol.
3%
55
$391,042 Vol.
2%
56
$138,698 Vol.
1%
57+
$29,222 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a razor-thin Republican Senate majority after the November 2026 midterms, with probabilities clustered tightly around 47-50 seats amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging 3-4 Senate flips against the White House party since 2000. Defending a 53-47 edge, Republicans face vulnerabilities in four Cook Political Report toss-ups (two each party) plus leans in battlegrounds like open New Hampshire (Lean D) and Minnesota (Likely D), while early March polls show Democrat Roy Cooper leading by 8 in North Carolina and GOP challenger Ken Paxton up 5-8 over John Cornyn in Texas runoff. Intra-party primaries and generic ballot trends could widen spreads, alongside nominee strength in Ohio's tight special election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,044,173Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a razor-thin Republican Senate majority after the November 2026 midterms, with probabilities clustered tightly around 47-50 seats amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging 3-4 Senate flips against the White House party since 2000. Defending a 53-47 edge, Republicans face vulnerabilities in four Cook Political Report toss-ups (two each party) plus leans in battlegrounds like open New Hampshire (Lean D) and Minnesota (Likely D), while early March polls show Democrat Roy Cooper leading by 8 in North Carolina and GOP challenger Ken Paxton up 5-8 over John Cornyn in Texas runoff. Intra-party primaries and generic ballot trends could widen spreads, alongside nominee strength in Ohio's tight special election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,044,173Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a razor-thin Republican Senate majority after the November 2026 midterms, with probabilities clustered tightly around 47-50 seats amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging 3-4 Senate flips against the White House party since 2000. Defending a 53-47 edge, Republicans face vulnerabilities in four Cook Political Report toss-ups (two each party) plus leans in battlegrounds like open New Hampshire (Lean D) and Minnesota (Likely D), while early March polls show Democrat Roy Cooper leading by 8 in North Carolina and GOP challenger Ken Paxton up 5-8 over John Cornyn in Texas runoff. Intra-party primaries and generic ballot trends could widen spreads, alongside nominee strength in Ohio's tight special election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes