Trader consensus on the 2026 midterm House popular vote margin reflects early generic ballot polling averages showing Democrats ahead by 4-6 points, as in Nate Silver's March 27 average of D+5.5 and Morning Consult's March 16-22 survey of D 45%-R 42%, driving elevated probabilities for modest Democratic wins like 6-8% (22%) and 8-10% (17.5%). The leading "Other" outcome at 45.5% captures high uncertainty this far out, amid volatile factors including President Trump's second-term approval dipping to -17, persistent inflation and tariff-driven price pressures shifting low-income voters leftward, and declining support for the ongoing Iran campaign. First primaries on March 4 produced no major shifts, with historical midterm penalties for the president's party (Republicans holding a narrow 220-215 House majority post-2024) tempering aggressive bets. Upcoming primaries and economic data could further sway odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
Democrats 0-2% 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
4%
Democrats 14-16%
6%
Democrats 12-14%
4%
Democrats 10-12%
10%
Democrats 8-10%
17%
Democrats 6-8%
22%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
16%
Democrats 0-2%
11%
Republicans 0-2%
6%
Republicans 2-4%
10%
Republicans 4-6%
4%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
Democrats 0-2% 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$0 Vol.
4%
Democrats 14-16%
$0 Vol.
6%
Democrats 12-14%
$0 Vol.
4%
Democrats 10-12%
$0 Vol.
10%
Democrats 8-10%
$0 Vol.
17%
Democrats 6-8%
$0 Vol.
22%
Democrats 4-6%
$0 Vol.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$734 Vol.
16%
Democrats 0-2%
$806 Vol.
11%
Republicans 0-2%
$0 Vol.
6%
Republicans 2-4%
$0 Vol.
10%
Republicans 4-6%
$0 Vol.
4%
Republicans 6%+
$626 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on the 2026 midterm House popular vote margin reflects early generic ballot polling averages showing Democrats ahead by 4-6 points, as in Nate Silver's March 27 average of D+5.5 and Morning Consult's March 16-22 survey of D 45%-R 42%, driving elevated probabilities for modest Democratic wins like 6-8% (22%) and 8-10% (17.5%). The leading "Other" outcome at 45.5% captures high uncertainty this far out, amid volatile factors including President Trump's second-term approval dipping to -17, persistent inflation and tariff-driven price pressures shifting low-income voters leftward, and declining support for the ongoing Iran campaign. First primaries on March 4 produced no major shifts, with historical midterm penalties for the president's party (Republicans holding a narrow 220-215 House majority post-2024) tempering aggressive bets. Upcoming primaries and economic data could further sway odds.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,165Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on the 2026 midterm House popular vote margin reflects early generic ballot polling averages showing Democrats ahead by 4-6 points, as in Nate Silver's March 27 average of D+5.5 and Morning Consult's March 16-22 survey of D 45%-R 42%, driving elevated probabilities for modest Democratic wins like 6-8% (22%) and 8-10% (17.5%). The leading "Other" outcome at 45.5% captures high uncertainty this far out, amid volatile factors including President Trump's second-term approval dipping to -17, persistent inflation and tariff-driven price pressures shifting low-income voters leftward, and declining support for the ongoing Iran campaign. First primaries on March 4 produced no major shifts, with historical midterm penalties for the president's party (Republicans holding a narrow 220-215 House majority post-2024) tempering aggressive bets. Upcoming primaries and economic data could further sway odds.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$2,165Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 midterm House popular vote margin reflects early generic ballot polling averages showing Democrats ahead by 4-6 points, as in Nate Silver's March 27 average of D+5.5 and Morning Consult's March 16-22 survey of D 45%-R 42%, driving elevated probabilities for modest Democratic wins like 6-8% (22%) and 8-10% (17.5%). The leading "Other" outcome at 45.5% captures high uncertainty this far out, amid volatile factors including President Trump's second-term approval dipping to -17, persistent inflation and tariff-driven price pressures shifting low-income voters leftward, and declining support for the ongoing Iran campaign. First primaries on March 4 produced no major shifts, with historical midterm penalties for the president's party (Republicans holding a narrow 220-215 House majority post-2024) tempering aggressive bets. Upcoming primaries and economic data could further sway odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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