Trader consensus prices seven Republican Senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 56%, reflecting two confirmed retirements—Sens. Thom Tillis (NC), who announced October 30 citing policy rifts on Ukraine aid and border security, and Jim Risch (ID)—plus expectations of five more among the 22 GOP-held Class II seats. Historical midterm patterns show majority parties averaging 4-8 retirements, amplified here by primary pressures in a Trump-influenced Republican landscape, vulnerable incumbents facing fundraising challenges, and demographics with several over 70 like John Cornyn (TX) and Lindsey Graham (SC). No new announcements past week; early 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements could shift probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour7 57%
6 12%
8 9.3%
5 6.9%
$46,110 Vol.
$46,110 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
2%
5
7%
6
12%
7
56%
8
9%
9
1%
10
1%
11
6%
12 ou plus
1%
7 57%
6 12%
8 9.3%
5 6.9%
$46,110 Vol.
$46,110 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$15,719 Vol.
2%
5
$0 Vol.
7%
6
$26,112 Vol.
12%
7
$0 Vol.
56%
8
$0 Vol.
9%
9
$0 Vol.
1%
10
$0 Vol.
1%
11
$0 Vol.
6%
12 ou plus
$4,279 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices seven Republican Senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 56%, reflecting two confirmed retirements—Sens. Thom Tillis (NC), who announced October 30 citing policy rifts on Ukraine aid and border security, and Jim Risch (ID)—plus expectations of five more among the 22 GOP-held Class II seats. Historical midterm patterns show majority parties averaging 4-8 retirements, amplified here by primary pressures in a Trump-influenced Republican landscape, vulnerable incumbents facing fundraising challenges, and demographics with several over 70 like John Cornyn (TX) and Lindsey Graham (SC). No new announcements past week; early 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements could shift probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$46,110Date de fin
Aug 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices seven Republican Senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 56%, reflecting two confirmed retirements—Sens. Thom Tillis (NC), who announced October 30 citing policy rifts on Ukraine aid and border security, and Jim Risch (ID)—plus expectations of five more among the 22 GOP-held Class II seats. Historical midterm patterns show majority parties averaging 4-8 retirements, amplified here by primary pressures in a Trump-influenced Republican landscape, vulnerable incumbents facing fundraising challenges, and demographics with several over 70 like John Cornyn (TX) and Lindsey Graham (SC). No new announcements past week; early 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements could shift probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$46,110Date de fin
Aug 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices seven Republican Senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 56%, reflecting two confirmed retirements—Sens. Thom Tillis (NC), who announced October 30 citing policy rifts on Ukraine aid and border security, and Jim Risch (ID)—plus expectations of five more among the 22 GOP-held Class II seats. Historical midterm patterns show majority parties averaging 4-8 retirements, amplified here by primary pressures in a Trump-influenced Republican landscape, vulnerable incumbents facing fundraising challenges, and demographics with several over 70 like John Cornyn (TX) and Lindsey Graham (SC). No new announcements past week; early 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements could shift probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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