Rep. Kevin Hern's commanding 93% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from his rapid campaign launch on March 11 following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as DHS Secretary, creating an open seat for the full term election. Hern quickly amassed high-profile endorsements from President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Sen. Tim Scott, and Club for Growth PAC, signaling strong establishment and conservative backing in a state with reliable GOP turnout. With minimal traction from challengers like Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell or Rep. Stephanie Bice, traders view Hern's fundraising prowess and House Republican leadership experience—former RSC chair—as unassailable advantages. Potential disruptions include a late high-profile entrant backed by Gov. Stitt or intra-party polling shifts before the April filing deadline and June primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de la primaire du Sénat républicain de l'Oklahoma
Vainqueur de la primaire du Sénat républicain de l'Oklahoma
Kevin Hern 93%
Nick Hankins 2.1%
John M. O’Connor 1.4%
Wayne Lonny Washington 1.4%
Kevin Hern
93%
Nick Hankins
2%
John M. O’Connor
1%
Wayne Lonny Washington
1%
Stephanie Bice
1%
Matt Pinnell
1%
Markwayne Mullin
1%
Tammy Swearengin
1%
Ron Meinhardt
1%
Donelle Harder
<1%
Kevin Hern 93%
Nick Hankins 2.1%
John M. O’Connor 1.4%
Wayne Lonny Washington 1.4%
Kevin Hern
93%
Nick Hankins
2%
John M. O’Connor
1%
Wayne Lonny Washington
1%
Stephanie Bice
1%
Matt Pinnell
1%
Markwayne Mullin
1%
Tammy Swearengin
1%
Ron Meinhardt
1%
Donelle Harder
<1%
If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Rep. Kevin Hern's commanding 93% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from his rapid campaign launch on March 11 following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as DHS Secretary, creating an open seat for the full term election. Hern quickly amassed high-profile endorsements from President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Sen. Tim Scott, and Club for Growth PAC, signaling strong establishment and conservative backing in a state with reliable GOP turnout. With minimal traction from challengers like Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell or Rep. Stephanie Bice, traders view Hern's fundraising prowess and House Republican leadership experience—former RSC chair—as unassailable advantages. Potential disruptions include a late high-profile entrant backed by Gov. Stitt or intra-party polling shifts before the April filing deadline and June primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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