Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito commands 96.4% trader consensus in the West Virginia Republican Senate primary market, driven by her strong incumbency advantage, consistent polling leads exceeding 70% in recent surveys from Public Policy Polling and others, and key endorsements including from former President Trump. Challengers Tom Willis, a former coal executive, and Alexander Gaasserud lag with single-digit support and limited fundraising, reflecting minimal threat in this deep-red state. With the May 14 primary nearing and no controversies or shifts in the past 30 days, markets price in low upset risk, though late scandals, health issues, or a surprise high-profile endorsement could theoretically narrow her lead.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourShelley Moore Capito 96.0%
Tom Willis 3.0%
Alexander Gaasserud 1.7%
$11,816 Vol.
$11,816 Vol.
Shelley Moore Capito
96%
Tom Willis
3%
Alexander Gaasserud
2%
Shelley Moore Capito 96.0%
Tom Willis 3.0%
Alexander Gaasserud 1.7%
$11,816 Vol.
$11,816 Vol.
Shelley Moore Capito
96%
Tom Willis
3%
Alexander Gaasserud
2%
If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito commands 96.4% trader consensus in the West Virginia Republican Senate primary market, driven by her strong incumbency advantage, consistent polling leads exceeding 70% in recent surveys from Public Policy Polling and others, and key endorsements including from former President Trump. Challengers Tom Willis, a former coal executive, and Alexander Gaasserud lag with single-digit support and limited fundraising, reflecting minimal threat in this deep-red state. With the May 14 primary nearing and no controversies or shifts in the past 30 days, markets price in low upset risk, though late scandals, health issues, or a surprise high-profile endorsement could theoretically narrow her lead.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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