Trump's secure position as the 47th President, inaugurated on January 20, 2025, with Republican majorities in the House and Senate, drives the 82.5% "No" probability on early departure before 2027, as impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority unlikely under unified GOP control. Recent executive actions—like border security executive orders and cabinet confirmations—signal vigorous leadership without health issues or scandals in the past 30 days; federal cases were dismissed post-election, removing legal overhangs. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely exit early absent crisis, and no such catalysts have emerged, though 2026 midterms or unforeseen events could alter trader consensus on his full-term path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$5,125,648 Vol.
$5,125,648 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$5,125,648 Vol.
$5,125,648 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's secure position as the 47th President, inaugurated on January 20, 2025, with Republican majorities in the House and Senate, drives the 82.5% "No" probability on early departure before 2027, as impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority unlikely under unified GOP control. Recent executive actions—like border security executive orders and cabinet confirmations—signal vigorous leadership without health issues or scandals in the past 30 days; federal cases were dismissed post-election, removing legal overhangs. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely exit early absent crisis, and no such catalysts have emerged, though 2026 midterms or unforeseen events could alter trader consensus on his full-term path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$5,125,648Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's secure position as the 47th President, inaugurated on January 20, 2025, with Republican majorities in the House and Senate, drives the 82.5% "No" probability on early departure before 2027, as impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority unlikely under unified GOP control. Recent executive actions—like border security executive orders and cabinet confirmations—signal vigorous leadership without health issues or scandals in the past 30 days; federal cases were dismissed post-election, removing legal overhangs. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely exit early absent crisis, and no such catalysts have emerged, though 2026 midterms or unforeseen events could alter trader consensus on his full-term path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,125,648Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's secure position as the 47th President, inaugurated on January 20, 2025, with Republican majorities in the House and Senate, drives the 82.5% "No" probability on early departure before 2027, as impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority unlikely under unified GOP control. Recent executive actions—like border security executive orders and cabinet confirmations—signal vigorous leadership without health issues or scandals in the past 30 days; federal cases were dismissed post-election, removing legal overhangs. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely exit early absent crisis, and no such catalysts have emerged, though 2026 midterms or unforeseen events could alter trader consensus on his full-term path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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