The elevated trader consensus against an early exit stems primarily from the high procedural thresholds for presidential removal, which require a House majority for impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction—barriers unlikely to be cleared given current Republican control of Congress and limited bipartisan appetite for such action. President Trump has continued active governance, including recent diplomatic engagement on Iran and tariff adjustments, without triggering acute institutional crises or health developments that would prompt resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could shift House dynamics, yet historical patterns show limited success in forcing departures absent overwhelming evidence of misconduct. Potential late developments such as major scandals, sudden health events, or unexpected court rulings remain the primary variables that could still influence probabilities before the 2027 threshold.