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Vainqueur des élections parlementaires écossaises

Market icon

Vainqueur des élections parlementaires écossaises

Parti national écossais 97.0%

Parti travailliste écossais 1.0%

Reform UK <1%

Libéraux-démocrates écossais <1%

Polymarket

$1,160,855 Vol.

Parti national écossais 97.0%

Parti travailliste écossais 1.0%

Reform UK <1%

Libéraux-démocrates écossais <1%

Polymarket

$1,160,855 Vol.

Parti national écossais

$920,456 Vol.

97%

Parti travailliste écossais

$17,170 Vol.

1%

Reform UK

$62,418 Vol.

1%

Libéraux-démocrates écossais

$102,220 Vol.

1%

Parti de la Souveraineté

$3,565 Vol.

<1%

Conservateurs écossais

$4,373 Vol.

<1%

Parti vert écossais

$35,272 Vol.

<1%

Parti Alba

$15,412 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Scottish National Party traders command 97% implied probability to secure the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, reflecting sustained polling dominance in both first-past-the-post constituencies and regional lists under proportional representation. Recent Find Out More polls show SNP at 37-40% support, ahead of Scottish Labour's 27% amid backlash to UK-wide Labour policies, with Reform UK and Conservatives trailing far behind; John Swinney's steady leadership has unified the pro-independence base post-leadership turbulence. This skin-in-the-game consensus anticipates SNP's regional strongholds delivering a plurality, consistent with historical Holyrood patterns where incumbents lead lists. Upsets could arise from a snap election, major SNP scandal like financial probes, surging unionist turnout in swing seats, or coalition dynamics post-vote, though structural advantages and 18-month horizon favor continuity.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volume
$1,160,855
Date de fin
May 7, 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Scottish National Party traders command 97% implied probability to secure the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, reflecting sustained polling dominance in both first-past-the-post constituencies and regional lists under proportional representation. Recent Find Out More polls show SNP at 37-40% support, ahead of Scottish Labour's 27% amid backlash to UK-wide Labour policies, with Reform UK and Conservatives trailing far behind; John Swinney's steady leadership has unified the pro-independence base post-leadership turbulence. This skin-in-the-game consensus anticipates SNP's regional strongholds delivering a plurality, consistent with historical Holyrood patterns where incumbents lead lists. Upsets could arise from a snap election, major SNP scandal like financial probes, surging unionist turnout in swing seats, or coalition dynamics post-vote, though structural advantages and 18-month horizon favor continuity.

Scottish National Party traders command 97% implied probability to secure the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, reflecting sustained polling dominance in both first-past-the-post constituencies and regional lists under proportional representation. Recent Find Out More polls show SNP at 37-40% support, ahead of Scottish Labour's 27% amid backlash to UK-wide Labour policies, with Reform UK and Conservatives trailing far behind; John Swinney's steady leadership has unified the pro-independence base post-leadership turbulence. This skin-in-the-game consensus anticipates SNP's regional strongholds delivering a plurality, consistent with historical Holyrood patterns where incumbents lead lists. Upsets could arise from a snap election, major SNP scandal like financial probes, surging unionist turnout in swing seats, or coalition dynamics post-vote, though structural advantages and 18-month horizon favor continuity.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur des élections parlementaires écossaises » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti national écossais » à 97%, suivi de « Parti travailliste écossais » à 1%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 97¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur des élections parlementaires écossaises » a généré $1.2 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 13, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur des élections parlementaires écossaises », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur des élections parlementaires écossaises » est « Parti national écossais » à 97%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti travailliste écossais » à 1%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur des élections parlementaires écossaises » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.