Republican control of the House and a likely Senate majority have historically deterred impeachment proceedings against President-elect Trump for his upcoming second term ending in 2029, yet traders price a 59.5% yes probability amid persistent Democratic vows for investigations into his business dealings, cabinet nominations, and past controversies like January 6. Recent catalysts include House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' statements signaling aggressive oversight starting January 3 when the new Congress convenes, alongside ongoing federal probes despite court dismissals in classified documents and election interference cases. While GOP loyalty limits House impeachment votes and Senate conviction remains improbable without supermajority defections, market consensus reflects bets on potential flashpoints from executive actions or scandals shifting congressional dynamics before inauguration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Republican control of the House and a likely Senate majority have historically deterred impeachment proceedings against President-elect Trump for his upcoming second term ending in 2029, yet traders price a 59.5% yes probability amid persistent Democratic vows for investigations into his business dealings, cabinet nominations, and past controversies like January 6. Recent catalysts include House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' statements signaling aggressive oversight starting January 3 when the new Congress convenes, alongside ongoing federal probes despite court dismissals in classified documents and election interference cases. While GOP loyalty limits House impeachment votes and Senate conviction remains improbable without supermajority defections, market consensus reflects bets on potential flashpoints from executive actions or scandals shifting congressional dynamics before inauguration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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