The broad distribution of probabilities for 2026 House turnout reflects uncertainty over voter participation in the November midterm elections, with the leading 115-120 million range capturing trader consensus around historical midterm baselines. Key factors include differential party enthusiasm, early voting trends, and mobilization efforts in competitive districts, alongside national conditions such as economic sentiment and salient policy issues that typically influence turnout. A closely contested field leaves room for shifts from late-campaign events, weather on Election Day, or stronger-than-expected ground operations by either party. Recent polling on voter intent and registration data provide the primary inputs traders weigh when distinguishing among the clustered central outcomes.