Trader consensus slightly favors Republicans at 54.5% to hold the Texas Senate seat in the November 3 general election, driven by incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's fundraising edge—$12.9 million raised through March—and heavy super PAC ad spending exceeding $57 million, offsetting late April polls showing Democratic nominee State Rep. James Talarico leading both Cornyn (44%-41%) and runoff rival Attorney General Ken Paxton (46%-41%) among likely voters. The race remains tightly contested due to the May 26 GOP primary runoff, where polls average Paxton ahead by 3 points among likely voters, but Paxton's 5-8% drag on downballot races in recent surveys heightens general election risks in this Republican-leaning state. A Cornyn victory could widen the GOP edge via incumbency and stronger polling like a May 7 survey showing him up 51%-49% over a generic Democrat, while Paxton's nomination, urban turnout surges, or national midterm shifts could tip toward Democrats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections sénatoriales au Texas
Vainqueur des élections sénatoriales au Texas
$197,425 Vol.
$197,425 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
55%
Démocrate
47%
$197,425 Vol.
$197,425 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
$108,658 Vol.
55%
Démocrate
$88,767 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus slightly favors Republicans at 54.5% to hold the Texas Senate seat in the November 3 general election, driven by incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's fundraising edge—$12.9 million raised through March—and heavy super PAC ad spending exceeding $57 million, offsetting late April polls showing Democratic nominee State Rep. James Talarico leading both Cornyn (44%-41%) and runoff rival Attorney General Ken Paxton (46%-41%) among likely voters. The race remains tightly contested due to the May 26 GOP primary runoff, where polls average Paxton ahead by 3 points among likely voters, but Paxton's 5-8% drag on downballot races in recent surveys heightens general election risks in this Republican-leaning state. A Cornyn victory could widen the GOP edge via incumbency and stronger polling like a May 7 survey showing him up 51%-49% over a generic Democrat, while Paxton's nomination, urban turnout surges, or national midterm shifts could tip toward Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$197,425Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus slightly favors Republicans at 54.5% to hold the Texas Senate seat in the November 3 general election, driven by incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's fundraising edge—$12.9 million raised through March—and heavy super PAC ad spending exceeding $57 million, offsetting late April polls showing Democratic nominee State Rep. James Talarico leading both Cornyn (44%-41%) and runoff rival Attorney General Ken Paxton (46%-41%) among likely voters. The race remains tightly contested due to the May 26 GOP primary runoff, where polls average Paxton ahead by 3 points among likely voters, but Paxton's 5-8% drag on downballot races in recent surveys heightens general election risks in this Republican-leaning state. A Cornyn victory could widen the GOP edge via incumbency and stronger polling like a May 7 survey showing him up 51%-49% over a generic Democrat, while Paxton's nomination, urban turnout surges, or national midterm shifts could tip toward Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$197,425Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus slightly favors Republicans at 54.5% to hold the Texas Senate seat in the November 3 general election, driven by incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's fundraising edge—$12.9 million raised through March—and heavy super PAC ad spending exceeding $57 million, offsetting late April polls showing Democratic nominee State Rep. James Talarico leading both Cornyn (44%-41%) and runoff rival Attorney General Ken Paxton (46%-41%) among likely voters. The race remains tightly contested due to the May 26 GOP primary runoff, where polls average Paxton ahead by 3 points among likely voters, but Paxton's 5-8% drag on downballot races in recent surveys heightens general election risks in this Republican-leaning state. A Cornyn victory could widen the GOP edge via incumbency and stronger polling like a May 7 survey showing him up 51%-49% over a generic Democrat, while Paxton's nomination, urban turnout surges, or national midterm shifts could tip toward Democrats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes