Trader consensus on Polymarket for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize shows a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner, as Yulia Navalnaya's 10.5% implied probability edges out Volodymyr Zelenskyy (8.5%) and Donald Trump (7.5%) amid high uncertainty typical of early-stage awards markets. Navalnaya's lead stems from her vocal continuation of Alexei Navalny's dissident legacy against Putin, amplified by recent European speeches and Russia's ongoing aggression. Zelenskyy's position reflects persistent global backing for Ukraine's resistance, while Trump's odds surged post his November U.S. election victory on bets for potential diplomatic triumphs in Ukraine or the Middle East. Differentiators include tangible peace mediation versus principled opposition; the Norwegian Nobel Committee's secretive voting favors verifiable conflict resolutions, with momentum hinging on 2025 geopolitical shifts ahead of the October 2026 announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026
Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026
Yulia Navalnaya 11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 8.7%
Donald Trump 8%
Pope Leo XIV 4.0%
$11,257,802 Vol.
$11,257,802 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya
11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
9%

Donald Trump
8%

Pope Leo XIV
4%

La Cour internationale de Justice
4%

UNRWA
3%

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
3%

Greta Thunberg
3%

Narendra Modi
2%

Charlie Kirk
2%

Elon Musk
2%

Julian Assange
1%

Xi Jinping
1%

Khaled Mashal
1%

Mohammed bin Salman
1%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%

Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres
1%

Vladimir Poutine
1%

Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Yulia Navalnaya 11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 8.7%
Donald Trump 8%
Pope Leo XIV 4.0%
$11,257,802 Vol.
$11,257,802 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya
11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
9%

Donald Trump
8%

Pope Leo XIV
4%

La Cour internationale de Justice
4%

UNRWA
3%

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
3%

Greta Thunberg
3%

Narendra Modi
2%

Charlie Kirk
2%

Elon Musk
2%

Julian Assange
1%

Xi Jinping
1%

Khaled Mashal
1%

Mohammed bin Salman
1%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%

Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres
1%

Vladimir Poutine
1%

Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Marché ouvert : Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize shows a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner, as Yulia Navalnaya's 10.5% implied probability edges out Volodymyr Zelenskyy (8.5%) and Donald Trump (7.5%) amid high uncertainty typical of early-stage awards markets. Navalnaya's lead stems from her vocal continuation of Alexei Navalny's dissident legacy against Putin, amplified by recent European speeches and Russia's ongoing aggression. Zelenskyy's position reflects persistent global backing for Ukraine's resistance, while Trump's odds surged post his November U.S. election victory on bets for potential diplomatic triumphs in Ukraine or the Middle East. Differentiators include tangible peace mediation versus principled opposition; the Norwegian Nobel Committee's secretive voting favors verifiable conflict resolutions, with momentum hinging on 2025 geopolitical shifts ahead of the October 2026 announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes