Recent diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has underscored Beijing’s preference for achieving cross-strait objectives through coercive diplomacy rather than immediate military action. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and view an amphibious assault as high-risk due to potential U.S. involvement and operational challenges in the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing People’s Liberation Army activities focus on gray-zone pressure and capability development rather than imminent invasion preparations. Traders assign a 98.7 percent implied probability to no invasion by June 30, 2026, reflecting these structural constraints. Late-breaking shifts in leadership risk tolerance or unforeseen escalatory incidents could still alter the outlook within the narrow resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$8,320,611 Vol.
$8,320,611 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$8,320,611 Vol.
$8,320,611 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has underscored Beijing’s preference for achieving cross-strait objectives through coercive diplomacy rather than immediate military action. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and view an amphibious assault as high-risk due to potential U.S. involvement and operational challenges in the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing People’s Liberation Army activities focus on gray-zone pressure and capability development rather than imminent invasion preparations. Traders assign a 98.7 percent implied probability to no invasion by June 30, 2026, reflecting these structural constraints. Late-breaking shifts in leadership risk tolerance or unforeseen escalatory incidents could still alter the outlook within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$8,320,611Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has underscored Beijing’s preference for achieving cross-strait objectives through coercive diplomacy rather than immediate military action. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and view an amphibious assault as high-risk due to potential U.S. involvement and operational challenges in the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing People’s Liberation Army activities focus on gray-zone pressure and capability development rather than imminent invasion preparations. Traders assign a 98.7 percent implied probability to no invasion by June 30, 2026, reflecting these structural constraints. Late-breaking shifts in leadership risk tolerance or unforeseen escalatory incidents could still alter the outlook within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$8,320,935Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has underscored Beijing’s preference for achieving cross-strait objectives through coercive diplomacy rather than immediate military action. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to indicate that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and view an amphibious assault as high-risk due to potential U.S. involvement and operational challenges in the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing People’s Liberation Army activities focus on gray-zone pressure and capability development rather than imminent invasion preparations. Traders assign a 98.7 percent implied probability to no invasion by June 30, 2026, reflecting these structural constraints. Late-breaking shifts in leadership risk tolerance or unforeseen escalatory incidents could still alter the outlook within the narrow resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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