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Économie·Chine

Croissance annuelle du PIB de la Chine 2026

icon for Croissance annuelle du PIB de la Chine 2026
Économie·Chine

Croissance annuelle du PIB de la Chine 2026

4,0–5,0 % 74%

5,0–6,0 % 25.1%

3,0–4,0 % <1%

6,0-7,0 % <1%

Polymarket

$621,394 Vol.

4,0–5,0 % 74%

5,0–6,0 % 25.1%

3,0–4,0 % <1%

6,0-7,0 % <1%

Polymarket

$621,394 Vol.

<1,0 %

$48,011 Vol.

<1%

1,0–2,0 %

$47,886 Vol.

<1%

2,0–3,0 %

$27,963 Vol.

<1%

3,0–4,0 %

$51,091 Vol.

1%

4,0–5,0 %

$153,854 Vol.

74%

5,0–6,0 %

$61,948 Vol.

25%

6,0-7,0 %

$56,026 Vol.

<1%

7,0–8,0 %

$57,505 Vol.

<1%

8,0–9,0 %

$26,425 Vol.

<1%

9,0 %+

$90,684 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, announced at the National People's Congress as part of the 15th Five-Year Plan, has anchored trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent band. International forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and ADB cluster near 4.4–4.6 percent, reflecting continued policy support through fiscal measures and targeted liquidity amid persistent weak domestic demand and property-sector headwinds. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, consistent with these projections, while subdued consumer confidence and external uncertainties limit upside surprises. The modest 25 percent probability assigned to 5.0–6.0 percent captures potential for stronger export resilience or additional stimulus, yet the market pricing underscores consensus on a stable but moderated expansion path.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.

The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$621,394
Date de fin
31 janv. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, announced at the National People's Congress as part of the 15th Five-Year Plan, has anchored trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent band. International forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and ADB cluster near 4.4–4.6 percent, reflecting continued policy support through fiscal measures and targeted liquidity amid persistent weak domestic demand and property-sector headwinds. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, consistent with these projections, while subdued consumer confidence and external uncertainties limit upside surprises. The modest 25 percent probability assigned to 5.0–6.0 percent captures potential for stronger export resilience or additional stimulus, yet the market pricing underscores consensus on a stable but moderated expansion path.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.

The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$621,394
Date de fin
31 janv. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Questions fréquentes

« Croissance annuelle du PIB de la Chine 2026 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 10 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 4,0–5,0 % » à 74%, suivi de « 5,0–6,0 % » à 25%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 74¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 74% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Croissance annuelle du PIB de la Chine 2026 » a généré $621.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 21, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Croissance annuelle du PIB de la Chine 2026 », parcourez les 10 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Croissance annuelle du PIB de la Chine 2026 » est « 4,0–5,0 % » à 74%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 74% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 5,0–6,0 % » à 25%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Croissance annuelle du PIB de la Chine 2026 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.