Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.4% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, while major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed survey anticipate full-year growth of 2.2–2.5%, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act including tax cuts and expensing provisions. A resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and moderate job gains further bolsters the outlook, even amid tariff pressures and elevated energy-driven inflation. Upcoming Q2 GDP figures, FOMC communications, and inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
$27,733 Vol.
$27,733 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
$27,733 Vol.
$27,733 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.4% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, while major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed survey anticipate full-year growth of 2.2–2.5%, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act including tax cuts and expensing provisions. A resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and moderate job gains further bolsters the outlook, even amid tariff pressures and elevated energy-driven inflation. Upcoming Q2 GDP figures, FOMC communications, and inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,733Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.4% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, while major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed survey anticipate full-year growth of 2.2–2.5%, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act including tax cuts and expensing provisions. A resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and moderate job gains further bolsters the outlook, even amid tariff pressures and elevated energy-driven inflation. Upcoming Q2 GDP figures, FOMC communications, and inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,733Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.4% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, while major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed survey anticipate full-year growth of 2.2–2.5%, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act including tax cuts and expensing provisions. A resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and moderate job gains further bolsters the outlook, even amid tariff pressures and elevated energy-driven inflation. Upcoming Q2 GDP figures, FOMC communications, and inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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