Polymarket traders price a tight race for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 0.6–0.8% band leading at 34.5% implied probability amid 28% for 0.9–1.1% and 27% for 1.2%+, reflecting uncertainty over consumption recovery and external demand. Q4 2025 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized—below consensus—driven by soft private consumption despite capex resilience, per Cabinet Office data, while manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.2 signaling contraction. Bank of Japan minutes from December 2025 FOMC underscore cautious monetary policy amid yen weakness (USDJPY ~155) boosting exports but stoking inflation risks. Key swing factors include January Tankan survey on business capex and U.S./China trade data; resolution hinges on March 2026 preliminary print.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour0,6–0,8 % 35%
1,2 %+ 27%
≤-0,4 % 26%
0,9–1,1 % 26%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0,4 %
26%
-0,3– -0,1 %
23%
0,0–0,2 %
25%
0,3–0,5 %
23%
0,6–0,8 %
35%
0,9–1,1 %
26%
1,2 %+
27%
0,6–0,8 % 35%
1,2 %+ 27%
≤-0,4 % 26%
0,9–1,1 % 26%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0,4 %
$0 Vol.
26%
-0,3– -0,1 %
$0 Vol.
23%
0,0–0,2 %
$0 Vol.
25%
0,3–0,5 %
$0 Vol.
23%
0,6–0,8 %
$7 Vol.
35%
0,9–1,1 %
$0 Vol.
26%
1,2 %+
$0 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders price a tight race for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 0.6–0.8% band leading at 34.5% implied probability amid 28% for 0.9–1.1% and 27% for 1.2%+, reflecting uncertainty over consumption recovery and external demand. Q4 2025 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized—below consensus—driven by soft private consumption despite capex resilience, per Cabinet Office data, while manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.2 signaling contraction. Bank of Japan minutes from December 2025 FOMC underscore cautious monetary policy amid yen weakness (USDJPY ~155) boosting exports but stoking inflation risks. Key swing factors include January Tankan survey on business capex and U.S./China trade data; resolution hinges on March 2026 preliminary print.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$7Date de fin
May 19, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders price a tight race for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 0.6–0.8% band leading at 34.5% implied probability amid 28% for 0.9–1.1% and 27% for 1.2%+, reflecting uncertainty over consumption recovery and external demand. Q4 2025 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized—below consensus—driven by soft private consumption despite capex resilience, per Cabinet Office data, while manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.2 signaling contraction. Bank of Japan minutes from December 2025 FOMC underscore cautious monetary policy amid yen weakness (USDJPY ~155) boosting exports but stoking inflation risks. Key swing factors include January Tankan survey on business capex and U.S./China trade data; resolution hinges on March 2026 preliminary print.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$7Date de fin
May 19, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a tight race for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 0.6–0.8% band leading at 34.5% implied probability amid 28% for 0.9–1.1% and 27% for 1.2%+, reflecting uncertainty over consumption recovery and external demand. Q4 2025 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized—below consensus—driven by soft private consumption despite capex resilience, per Cabinet Office data, while manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.2 signaling contraction. Bank of Japan minutes from December 2025 FOMC underscore cautious monetary policy amid yen weakness (USDJPY ~155) boosting exports but stoking inflation risks. Key swing factors include January Tankan survey on business capex and U.S./China trade data; resolution hinges on March 2026 preliminary print.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes