Trader sentiment on Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth remains fragmented, with the 0.6–0.8% annualized quarter-on-quarter bin leading at 34.5% implied probability amid competing dynamics from robust Q4 2025 data—revised upward to 1.3% on March 10 driven by strong business investment—and downside risks. Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% on March 19, signaling tighter bias amid Iran conflict-fueled oil price surges threatening inflation and consumption, while March manufacturing PMI softened to 51.4 from 53.0. Consensus forecasts like JCER's 1.48% tilt higher, but traders price in uncertainty from energy costs and exports, with Q1 flash GDP due May 19 as the key catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour0,6–0,8 % 35%
1,2 %+ 26%
≤-0,4 % 26%
0,9–1,1 % 25%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0,4 %
26%
-0,3– -0,1 %
23%
0,0–0,2 %
24%
0,3–0,5 %
24%
0,6–0,8 %
35%
0,9–1,1 %
25%
1,2 %+
26%
0,6–0,8 % 35%
1,2 %+ 26%
≤-0,4 % 26%
0,9–1,1 % 25%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0,4 %
$0 Vol.
26%
-0,3– -0,1 %
$0 Vol.
23%
0,0–0,2 %
$0 Vol.
24%
0,3–0,5 %
$0 Vol.
24%
0,6–0,8 %
$7 Vol.
35%
0,9–1,1 %
$0 Vol.
25%
1,2 %+
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader sentiment on Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth remains fragmented, with the 0.6–0.8% annualized quarter-on-quarter bin leading at 34.5% implied probability amid competing dynamics from robust Q4 2025 data—revised upward to 1.3% on March 10 driven by strong business investment—and downside risks. Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% on March 19, signaling tighter bias amid Iran conflict-fueled oil price surges threatening inflation and consumption, while March manufacturing PMI softened to 51.4 from 53.0. Consensus forecasts like JCER's 1.48% tilt higher, but traders price in uncertainty from energy costs and exports, with Q1 flash GDP due May 19 as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$7Date de fin
May 19, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader sentiment on Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth remains fragmented, with the 0.6–0.8% annualized quarter-on-quarter bin leading at 34.5% implied probability amid competing dynamics from robust Q4 2025 data—revised upward to 1.3% on March 10 driven by strong business investment—and downside risks. Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% on March 19, signaling tighter bias amid Iran conflict-fueled oil price surges threatening inflation and consumption, while March manufacturing PMI softened to 51.4 from 53.0. Consensus forecasts like JCER's 1.48% tilt higher, but traders price in uncertainty from energy costs and exports, with Q1 flash GDP due May 19 as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$7Date de fin
May 19, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth remains fragmented, with the 0.6–0.8% annualized quarter-on-quarter bin leading at 34.5% implied probability amid competing dynamics from robust Q4 2025 data—revised upward to 1.3% on March 10 driven by strong business investment—and downside risks. Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% on March 19, signaling tighter bias amid Iran conflict-fueled oil price surges threatening inflation and consumption, while March manufacturing PMI softened to 51.4 from 53.0. Consensus forecasts like JCER's 1.48% tilt higher, but traders price in uncertainty from energy costs and exports, with Q1 flash GDP due May 19 as the key catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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