Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting Office for National Statistics confirmation two days ago of just 0.1% expansion in Q4 2025 and flat January monthly output, signaling persistent cyclical weakness amid high Bank of England interest rates. Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran war, have fueled energy cost pressures, prompting the OECD's sharpest major-economy downgrade for UK 2026 growth to 0.7% last week and plunging economic confidence to record lows. Forecasts cluster low—Pantheon Macroeconomics at 0.2-0.4%, Capital Economics at 0.3%—with the adjacent 0.3-0.6% bin at 25%; February monthly GDP data, due mid-April, and Q1 preliminary release on May 14 could shift sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour0,0-0,3 % 66%
0,3-0,6 % 25.9%
0,9-1,2 % 4.1%
Négatif 2.1%
$21,118 Vol.
$21,118 Vol.
14 mai 2026
Négatif
2%
0,0-0,3 %
68%
0,3-0,6 %
26%
0,6-0,9 %
1%
0,9-1,2 %
4%
1,2-1,5 %
1%
1,5-1,8 %
<1%
1,8 %+
1%
0,0-0,3 % 66%
0,3-0,6 % 25.9%
0,9-1,2 % 4.1%
Négatif 2.1%
$21,118 Vol.
$21,118 Vol.
14 mai 2026
Négatif
$1,780 Vol.
2%
0,0-0,3 %
$9,057 Vol.
68%
0,3-0,6 %
$908 Vol.
26%
0,6-0,9 %
$6,858 Vol.
1%
0,9-1,2 %
$552 Vol.
4%
1,2-1,5 %
$593 Vol.
1%
1,5-1,8 %
$496 Vol.
<1%
1,8 %+
$874 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting Office for National Statistics confirmation two days ago of just 0.1% expansion in Q4 2025 and flat January monthly output, signaling persistent cyclical weakness amid high Bank of England interest rates. Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran war, have fueled energy cost pressures, prompting the OECD's sharpest major-economy downgrade for UK 2026 growth to 0.7% last week and plunging economic confidence to record lows. Forecasts cluster low—Pantheon Macroeconomics at 0.2-0.4%, Capital Economics at 0.3%—with the adjacent 0.3-0.6% bin at 25%; February monthly GDP data, due mid-April, and Q1 preliminary release on May 14 could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$21,118Date de fin
14 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting Office for National Statistics confirmation two days ago of just 0.1% expansion in Q4 2025 and flat January monthly output, signaling persistent cyclical weakness amid high Bank of England interest rates. Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran war, have fueled energy cost pressures, prompting the OECD's sharpest major-economy downgrade for UK 2026 growth to 0.7% last week and plunging economic confidence to record lows. Forecasts cluster low—Pantheon Macroeconomics at 0.2-0.4%, Capital Economics at 0.3%—with the adjacent 0.3-0.6% bin at 25%; February monthly GDP data, due mid-April, and Q1 preliminary release on May 14 could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,118Date de fin
14 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting Office for National Statistics confirmation two days ago of just 0.1% expansion in Q4 2025 and flat January monthly output, signaling persistent cyclical weakness amid high Bank of England interest rates. Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran war, have fueled energy cost pressures, prompting the OECD's sharpest major-economy downgrade for UK 2026 growth to 0.7% last week and plunging economic confidence to record lows. Forecasts cluster low—Pantheon Macroeconomics at 0.2-0.4%, Capital Economics at 0.3%—with the adjacent 0.3-0.6% bin at 25%; February monthly GDP data, due mid-April, and Q1 preliminary release on May 14 could shift sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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