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Économie·Taux D'intérêt

Taux d'intérêt de la BCE : avril 2026

Market icon
Économie·Taux D'intérêt

Taux d'intérêt de la BCE : avril 2026

Apr 30

Jun 11

Apr 30

Jun 11

Augmentation 52.1%

Aucun changement 44.0%

Baisse de 25 points de base <1%

Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%

Polymarket

$136,524 Vol.

Augmentation 52.1%

Aucun changement 44.0%

Baisse de 25 points de base <1%

Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%

Polymarket

$136,524 Vol.

Baisse de plus de 50 points de base

$23,408 Vol.

<1%

Baisse de 25 points de base

$21,998 Vol.

<1%

Aucun changement

$39,683 Vol.

44%

Augmentation

$51,434 Vol.

52%

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$136,524
Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Trader consensus favors a slight ECB interest rate increase in April 2026 at 52.1%, narrowly ahead of no change at 44.1%, amid persistent Eurozone inflation hovering above the 2% target and upward revisions in wage growth forecasts. Recent ECB pauses after October and December 2024 cuts underscore data-dependent caution, as sticky services prices and potential U.S. policy spillovers from fiscal expansion temper easing expectations. The razor-thin margin reflects trader balance between inflation rebound risks—fueled by energy volatility and loose fiscal stances—and softening growth indicators like weakening PMIs. Separation could emerge from February 2026 CPI releases, Q1 GDP data, or ECB staff projections in March, shifting hike versus hold dynamics.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Taux d'intérêt de la BCE : avril 2026 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Augmentation » à 52%, suivi de « Aucun changement » à 44%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 52¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 52% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Taux d'intérêt de la BCE : avril 2026 » a généré $136.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 6, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Taux d'intérêt de la BCE : avril 2026 », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Taux d'intérêt de la BCE : avril 2026 » est « Augmentation » à 52%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 52% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Aucun changement » à 44%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Taux d'intérêt de la BCE : avril 2026 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.