Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated his intent to complete the full legislative term ending no later than August 2027, with no motion of no confidence, state of emergency, or other constitutional trigger for dissolution emerging. The minority PSOE-Sumar coalition continues budget negotiations with regional partners such as Junts despite recent regional setbacks and ongoing parliamentary defeats, while rejecting opposition demands for an early national vote. These factors, alongside Sánchez’s prior pattern of exhausting terms after 2019 and 2023 snap calls, underpin the 70% trader-implied probability against a 2026 snap election. Scheduled events within the resolution window, including potential 2026 budget votes, remain the primary variables that could still shift positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$21,916 Vol.
$21,916 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$21,916 Vol.
$21,916 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated his intent to complete the full legislative term ending no later than August 2027, with no motion of no confidence, state of emergency, or other constitutional trigger for dissolution emerging. The minority PSOE-Sumar coalition continues budget negotiations with regional partners such as Junts despite recent regional setbacks and ongoing parliamentary defeats, while rejecting opposition demands for an early national vote. These factors, alongside Sánchez’s prior pattern of exhausting terms after 2019 and 2023 snap calls, underpin the 70% trader-implied probability against a 2026 snap election. Scheduled events within the resolution window, including potential 2026 budget votes, remain the primary variables that could still shift positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$21,916Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated his intent to complete the full legislative term ending no later than August 2027, with no motion of no confidence, state of emergency, or other constitutional trigger for dissolution emerging. The minority PSOE-Sumar coalition continues budget negotiations with regional partners such as Junts despite recent regional setbacks and ongoing parliamentary defeats, while rejecting opposition demands for an early national vote. These factors, alongside Sánchez’s prior pattern of exhausting terms after 2019 and 2023 snap calls, underpin the 70% trader-implied probability against a 2026 snap election. Scheduled events within the resolution window, including potential 2026 budget votes, remain the primary variables that could still shift positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,916Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated his intent to complete the full legislative term ending no later than August 2027, with no motion of no confidence, state of emergency, or other constitutional trigger for dissolution emerging. The minority PSOE-Sumar coalition continues budget negotiations with regional partners such as Junts despite recent regional setbacks and ongoing parliamentary defeats, while rejecting opposition demands for an early national vote. These factors, alongside Sánchez’s prior pattern of exhausting terms after 2019 and 2023 snap calls, underpin the 70% trader-implied probability against a 2026 snap election. Scheduled events within the resolution window, including potential 2026 budget votes, remain the primary variables that could still shift positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes