Spain’s minority government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated it intends to complete the full legislative term ending in August 2027, reducing immediate prospects for a snap general election before the end of 2026. Recent regional contests have shown PSOE losses, including in Extremadura in late 2025 and Andalusia in May 2026, while opposition parties PP and Vox hold polling leads. Budget negotiations, dependence on regional allies such as Junts, and ongoing investigations involving government figures add pressure but have not yet produced a parliamentary trigger or motion that would force dissolution. Traders price a low probability of an early call, consistent with Sánchez’s prior pattern of exhausting terms absent a decisive catalyst. Scheduled regional votes and any autumn budget developments remain the main near-term variables that could alter the outlook.