France, UK, and Germany have maintained a cautious stance amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, issuing joint statements on March 1 condemning indiscriminate Iranian attacks while prioritizing diplomacy and defensive deployments over offensive strikes, as evidenced by UK approval for limited US base use and French-British naval assets repositioned in the Mideast by early March. No verified reports indicate E3 plans for direct military action against Iran, with leaders emphasizing negotiation amid failed nuclear talks and UN Resolution 2817 rebuking Tehran on March 11. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects this restraint, historical aversion to escalation, and focus on sanctions despite regional tensions, though a major Iranian provocation could shift odds before June 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa France, le Royaume-Uni ou l'Allemagne frapperont-ils l'Iran d'ici le 30 juin ?
La France, le Royaume-Uni ou l'Allemagne frapperont-ils l'Iran d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$522,789 Vol.
$522,789 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$522,789 Vol.
$522,789 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.France, UK, and Germany have maintained a cautious stance amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, issuing joint statements on March 1 condemning indiscriminate Iranian attacks while prioritizing diplomacy and defensive deployments over offensive strikes, as evidenced by UK approval for limited US base use and French-British naval assets repositioned in the Mideast by early March. No verified reports indicate E3 plans for direct military action against Iran, with leaders emphasizing negotiation amid failed nuclear talks and UN Resolution 2817 rebuking Tehran on March 11. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects this restraint, historical aversion to escalation, and focus on sanctions despite regional tensions, though a major Iranian provocation could shift odds before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Volume
$522,789Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.France, UK, and Germany have maintained a cautious stance amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, issuing joint statements on March 1 condemning indiscriminate Iranian attacks while prioritizing diplomacy and defensive deployments over offensive strikes, as evidenced by UK approval for limited US base use and French-British naval assets repositioned in the Mideast by early March. No verified reports indicate E3 plans for direct military action against Iran, with leaders emphasizing negotiation amid failed nuclear talks and UN Resolution 2817 rebuking Tehran on March 11. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects this restraint, historical aversion to escalation, and focus on sanctions despite regional tensions, though a major Iranian provocation could shift odds before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$522,789Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...France, UK, and Germany have maintained a cautious stance amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, issuing joint statements on March 1 condemning indiscriminate Iranian attacks while prioritizing diplomacy and defensive deployments over offensive strikes, as evidenced by UK approval for limited US base use and French-British naval assets repositioned in the Mideast by early March. No verified reports indicate E3 plans for direct military action against Iran, with leaders emphasizing negotiation amid failed nuclear talks and UN Resolution 2817 rebuking Tehran on March 11. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects this restraint, historical aversion to escalation, and focus on sanctions despite regional tensions, though a major Iranian provocation could shift odds before June 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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