France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a cautious, diplomacy-focused posture amid heightened Middle East tensions, driving the 92.5% trader consensus against any of them launching strikes on Iran by June 30. Following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets on February 28, the three nations issued a joint statement condemning Tehran's regional attacks and urging negotiations, while deploying ships, planes, and defensive measures without offensive involvement. Recent Iranian proxy actions, including Houthi missile strikes on Israel as of March 28 and warnings from President Pezeshkian, have not prompted escalation from Europe, reflecting historical reluctance for direct military entanglement reminiscent of Iraq. Divergent EU responses, like Spain's refusal to support, further underscore limited commitment, though direct threats to European bases could shift dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa France, le Royaume-Uni ou l'Allemagne frapperont-ils l'Iran d'ici le 30 juin ?
La France, le Royaume-Uni ou l'Allemagne frapperont-ils l'Iran d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$523,810 Vol.
$523,810 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$523,810 Vol.
$523,810 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a cautious, diplomacy-focused posture amid heightened Middle East tensions, driving the 92.5% trader consensus against any of them launching strikes on Iran by June 30. Following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets on February 28, the three nations issued a joint statement condemning Tehran's regional attacks and urging negotiations, while deploying ships, planes, and defensive measures without offensive involvement. Recent Iranian proxy actions, including Houthi missile strikes on Israel as of March 28 and warnings from President Pezeshkian, have not prompted escalation from Europe, reflecting historical reluctance for direct military entanglement reminiscent of Iraq. Divergent EU responses, like Spain's refusal to support, further underscore limited commitment, though direct threats to European bases could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Volume
$523,810Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a cautious, diplomacy-focused posture amid heightened Middle East tensions, driving the 92.5% trader consensus against any of them launching strikes on Iran by June 30. Following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets on February 28, the three nations issued a joint statement condemning Tehran's regional attacks and urging negotiations, while deploying ships, planes, and defensive measures without offensive involvement. Recent Iranian proxy actions, including Houthi missile strikes on Israel as of March 28 and warnings from President Pezeshkian, have not prompted escalation from Europe, reflecting historical reluctance for direct military entanglement reminiscent of Iraq. Divergent EU responses, like Spain's refusal to support, further underscore limited commitment, though direct threats to European bases could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$523,810Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...France, the UK, and Germany have maintained a cautious, diplomacy-focused posture amid heightened Middle East tensions, driving the 92.5% trader consensus against any of them launching strikes on Iran by June 30. Following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets on February 28, the three nations issued a joint statement condemning Tehran's regional attacks and urging negotiations, while deploying ships, planes, and defensive measures without offensive involvement. Recent Iranian proxy actions, including Houthi missile strikes on Israel as of March 28 and warnings from President Pezeshkian, have not prompted escalation from Europe, reflecting historical reluctance for direct military entanglement reminiscent of Iraq. Divergent EU responses, like Spain's refusal to support, further underscore limited commitment, though direct threats to European bases could shift dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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