The escalation of the Iran conflict has sharply elevated euro area inflation risks, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold key rates steady at its April 30 meeting while revising the 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6 percent. Energy price spikes and supply disruptions have reversed earlier expectations for easing, with analysts now projecting possible quarter-point hikes in June and September instead. Hawkish signals from officials and resilient core inflation data have reinforced trader consensus that the deposit facility is unlikely to fall below its current 2.00 percent level this year. This data-dependent stance, focused on containing second-round effects, underpins the strong market-implied probability against any rate reduction in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The escalation of the Iran conflict has sharply elevated euro area inflation risks, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold key rates steady at its April 30 meeting while revising the 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6 percent. Energy price spikes and supply disruptions have reversed earlier expectations for easing, with analysts now projecting possible quarter-point hikes in June and September instead. Hawkish signals from officials and resilient core inflation data have reinforced trader consensus that the deposit facility is unlikely to fall below its current 2.00 percent level this year. This data-dependent stance, focused on containing second-round effects, underpins the strong market-implied probability against any rate reduction in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$27,913Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The escalation of the Iran conflict has sharply elevated euro area inflation risks, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold key rates steady at its April 30 meeting while revising the 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6 percent. Energy price spikes and supply disruptions have reversed earlier expectations for easing, with analysts now projecting possible quarter-point hikes in June and September instead. Hawkish signals from officials and resilient core inflation data have reinforced trader consensus that the deposit facility is unlikely to fall below its current 2.00 percent level this year. This data-dependent stance, focused on containing second-round effects, underpins the strong market-implied probability against any rate reduction in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,913Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The escalation of the Iran conflict has sharply elevated euro area inflation risks, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold key rates steady at its April 30 meeting while revising the 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6 percent. Energy price spikes and supply disruptions have reversed earlier expectations for easing, with analysts now projecting possible quarter-point hikes in June and September instead. Hawkish signals from officials and resilient core inflation data have reinforced trader consensus that the deposit facility is unlikely to fall below its current 2.00 percent level this year. This data-dependent stance, focused on containing second-round effects, underpins the strong market-implied probability against any rate reduction in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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