Traders' 88% implied probability for no ECB rate cut in 2026 reflects the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady at 2.00% for the deposit facility amid surging eurozone inflation, which hit 3.0% in April due to Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks. The ECB's May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters revised headline inflation expectations upward to 2.7% for the year, with staff projections at 2.6%, keeping pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish signals from IMF forecasts for a 50 basis point hike and Bloomberg surveys anticipating two increases underscore persistent inflationary risks, diminishing cut prospects despite resilient growth; the next policy meeting in June could provide further clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' 88% implied probability for no ECB rate cut in 2026 reflects the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady at 2.00% for the deposit facility amid surging eurozone inflation, which hit 3.0% in April due to Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks. The ECB's May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters revised headline inflation expectations upward to 2.7% for the year, with staff projections at 2.6%, keeping pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish signals from IMF forecasts for a 50 basis point hike and Bloomberg surveys anticipating two increases underscore persistent inflationary risks, diminishing cut prospects despite resilient growth; the next policy meeting in June could provide further clarity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$27,913Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' 88% implied probability for no ECB rate cut in 2026 reflects the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady at 2.00% for the deposit facility amid surging eurozone inflation, which hit 3.0% in April due to Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks. The ECB's May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters revised headline inflation expectations upward to 2.7% for the year, with staff projections at 2.6%, keeping pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish signals from IMF forecasts for a 50 basis point hike and Bloomberg surveys anticipating two increases underscore persistent inflationary risks, diminishing cut prospects despite resilient growth; the next policy meeting in June could provide further clarity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,913Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 88% implied probability for no ECB rate cut in 2026 reflects the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady at 2.00% for the deposit facility amid surging eurozone inflation, which hit 3.0% in April due to Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks. The ECB's May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters revised headline inflation expectations upward to 2.7% for the year, with staff projections at 2.6%, keeping pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish signals from IMF forecasts for a 50 basis point hike and Bloomberg surveys anticipating two increases underscore persistent inflationary risks, diminishing cut prospects despite resilient growth; the next policy meeting in June could provide further clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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