ECB traders imply a 79% probability of no rate cut in 2026, driven by the European Central Bank's December 12 decision to hold deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates steady at 3%, 3.25%, and 3.4%, respectively, as eurozone inflation eased to 2.2% in November but services prices remained sticky above 4%. President Lagarde's press conference signaled potential 25 basis point cuts in January or March 2025 if disinflation continues, aligning with rate futures pricing peak easing by mid-2025 amid stabilizing PMI data and projected GDP growth acceleration. Hawkish comments from policymakers like Kazaks underscore normalization risks from wage growth and fiscal loosening under new EU fiscal rules, reducing odds of 2026 easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$20,046 Vol.
$20,046 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$20,046 Vol.
$20,046 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.ECB traders imply a 79% probability of no rate cut in 2026, driven by the European Central Bank's December 12 decision to hold deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates steady at 3%, 3.25%, and 3.4%, respectively, as eurozone inflation eased to 2.2% in November but services prices remained sticky above 4%. President Lagarde's press conference signaled potential 25 basis point cuts in January or March 2025 if disinflation continues, aligning with rate futures pricing peak easing by mid-2025 amid stabilizing PMI data and projected GDP growth acceleration. Hawkish comments from policymakers like Kazaks underscore normalization risks from wage growth and fiscal loosening under new EU fiscal rules, reducing odds of 2026 easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$20,046Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.ECB traders imply a 79% probability of no rate cut in 2026, driven by the European Central Bank's December 12 decision to hold deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates steady at 3%, 3.25%, and 3.4%, respectively, as eurozone inflation eased to 2.2% in November but services prices remained sticky above 4%. President Lagarde's press conference signaled potential 25 basis point cuts in January or March 2025 if disinflation continues, aligning with rate futures pricing peak easing by mid-2025 amid stabilizing PMI data and projected GDP growth acceleration. Hawkish comments from policymakers like Kazaks underscore normalization risks from wage growth and fiscal loosening under new EU fiscal rules, reducing odds of 2026 easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,046Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...ECB traders imply a 79% probability of no rate cut in 2026, driven by the European Central Bank's December 12 decision to hold deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates steady at 3%, 3.25%, and 3.4%, respectively, as eurozone inflation eased to 2.2% in November but services prices remained sticky above 4%. President Lagarde's press conference signaled potential 25 basis point cuts in January or March 2025 if disinflation continues, aligning with rate futures pricing peak easing by mid-2025 amid stabilizing PMI data and projected GDP growth acceleration. Hawkish comments from policymakers like Kazaks underscore normalization risks from wage growth and fiscal loosening under new EU fiscal rules, reducing odds of 2026 easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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