Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at 61.5% implied probability for the June 7 decision, driven by recent monthly inflation cooling to 0.6% in May from 0.9% prior, alongside ruble stabilization near 88-90 per USD amid softer oil prices and fiscal restraint. No change stands at 27%, reflecting caution over persistent 8.3% year-on-year CPI—well above the 4% target—while an increase at 11% appears unlikely absent renewed inflationary spikes from military spending or sanctions. High rates at 16% have curbed demand but risk recession, positioning easing as the market-implied base case if disinflation holds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourBank of Russia decision in June?
Bank of Russia decision in June?
Decrease 66%
No Change 27%
Increase 11%
Decrease
62%
No Change
27%
Increase
11%
Decrease 66%
No Change 27%
Increase 11%
Decrease
62%
No Change
27%
Increase
11%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at 61.5% implied probability for the June 7 decision, driven by recent monthly inflation cooling to 0.6% in May from 0.9% prior, alongside ruble stabilization near 88-90 per USD amid softer oil prices and fiscal restraint. No change stands at 27%, reflecting caution over persistent 8.3% year-on-year CPI—well above the 4% target—while an increase at 11% appears unlikely absent renewed inflationary spikes from military spending or sanctions. High rates at 16% have curbed demand but risk recession, positioning easing as the market-implied base case if disinflation holds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes