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Économie·Taux Globaux

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?

Market icon
Économie·Taux Globaux

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?

Apr 7

May 27

Apr 7

May 27

No Change 60%

Increase 32%

Decrease 6.2%

Polymarket
NEW

No Change 60%

Increase 32%

Decrease 6.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Increase

$253 Vol.

36%

No Change

$308 Vol.

62%

Decrease

$711 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the February 18 hold at a stimulatory 2.25% amid slightly elevated Q4 2025 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year—topping the 1-3% target band—yet expected to ease toward 2% over the coming year. A 36% chance of a hike stems from persistent inflation risks and low neutral rate estimates around 3%, despite softening Q4 GDP growth of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (below expectations) and unemployment rising to a decade-high 5.4%. A rate cut at 6.2% appears unlikely given the pickup in economic activity from accommodative policy, with Q1 CPI and employment data as key near-term catalysts.

Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the February 18 hold at a stimulatory 2.25% amid slightly elevated Q4 2025 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year—topping the 1-3% target band—yet expected to ease toward 2% over the coming year. A 36% chance of a hike stems from persistent inflation risks and low neutral rate estimates around 3%, despite softening Q4 GDP growth of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (below expectations) and unemployment rising to a decade-high 5.4%. A rate cut at 6.2% appears unlikely given the pickup in economic activity from accommodative policy, with Q1 CPI and employment data as key near-term catalysts.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the February 18 hold at a stimulatory 2.25% amid slightly elevated Q4 2025 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year—topping the 1-3% target band—yet expected to ease toward 2% over the coming year. A 36% chance of a hike stems from persistent inflation risks and low neutral rate estimates around 3%, despite softening Q4 GDP growth of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (below expectations) and unemployment rising to a decade-high 5.4%. A rate cut at 6.2% appears unlikely given the pickup in economic activity from accommodative policy, with Q1 CPI and employment data as key near-term catalysts.

Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the February 18 hold at a stimulatory 2.25% amid slightly elevated Q4 2025 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year—topping the 1-3% target band—yet expected to ease toward 2% over the coming year. A 36% chance of a hike stems from persistent inflation risks and low neutral rate estimates around 3%, despite softening Q4 GDP growth of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (below expectations) and unemployment rising to a decade-high 5.4%. A rate cut at 6.2% appears unlikely given the pickup in economic activity from accommodative policy, with Q1 CPI and employment data as key near-term catalysts.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 3 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « No Change » à 62%, suivi de « Increase » à 36%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 62¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 62% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Feb 17, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May? », parcourez les 3 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May? » est « No Change » à 62%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 62% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Increase » à 36%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.