Surging energy prices from the US-Iran conflict, with national average gasoline topping $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, have propelled Polymarket's market-implied probability for March headline CPI month-over-month ≥0.8% to a dominant 90.5%, aligning closely with the Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast of 0.84%. February 2026 CPI printed tame at +0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY, with core +0.2% MoM, but late-March oil spikes above $100/barrel for WTI have traders pricing in substantial headline passthrough given energy's ~8% CPI weight. Consensus anticipates core CPI near 0.2% MoM amid steady shelter and services trends. Realistic challenges include rapid de-escalation reversing fuel costs or muted retail pricing before the April 10 release, though proximity to resolution limits shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥0,8 % 91%
0.7% 7%
≤0.3% <1%
0.6% <1%
$520,454 Vol.
$520,454 Vol.
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
<1%
0.5%
<1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
7%
≥0,8 %
91%
≥0,8 % 91%
0.7% 7%
≤0.3% <1%
0.6% <1%
$520,454 Vol.
$520,454 Vol.
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
<1%
0.5%
<1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
7%
≥0,8 %
91%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Surging energy prices from the US-Iran conflict, with national average gasoline topping $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, have propelled Polymarket's market-implied probability for March headline CPI month-over-month ≥0.8% to a dominant 90.5%, aligning closely with the Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast of 0.84%. February 2026 CPI printed tame at +0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY, with core +0.2% MoM, but late-March oil spikes above $100/barrel for WTI have traders pricing in substantial headline passthrough given energy's ~8% CPI weight. Consensus anticipates core CPI near 0.2% MoM amid steady shelter and services trends. Realistic challenges include rapid de-escalation reversing fuel costs or muted retail pricing before the April 10 release, though proximity to resolution limits shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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