Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI month-over-month inflation at ≥0.8%, driven primarily by the Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast of 0.84% headline CPI, fueled by surging weekly gasoline prices and elevated daily oil levels. This aligns with February's 0.6% energy index rise—including 0.8% gasoline gains—amid steady 2.4% year-over-year headline inflation. Core drivers reflect persistent services and food pressures, with no major downward revisions in leading indicators. A realistic challenge would require softer-than-expected commodity prints or favorable weather muting energy passthrough ahead of the April 10 BLS release, though current momentum favors the hot outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥0,8 % 91%
0.7% 8%
≤0.3% <1%
0.6% <1%
$521,283 Vol.
$521,283 Vol.
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
<1%
0.5%
<1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
8%
≥0,8 %
91%
≥0,8 % 91%
0.7% 8%
≤0.3% <1%
0.6% <1%
$521,283 Vol.
$521,283 Vol.
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
<1%
0.5%
<1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
8%
≥0,8 %
91%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI month-over-month inflation at ≥0.8%, driven primarily by the Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast of 0.84% headline CPI, fueled by surging weekly gasoline prices and elevated daily oil levels. This aligns with February's 0.6% energy index rise—including 0.8% gasoline gains—amid steady 2.4% year-over-year headline inflation. Core drivers reflect persistent services and food pressures, with no major downward revisions in leading indicators. A realistic challenge would require softer-than-expected commodity prints or favorable weather muting energy passthrough ahead of the April 10 BLS release, though current momentum favors the hot outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes