Polymarket traders are closely divided on China 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 0.6–1.0% (19.5%) edging 1.6–2.0% (18.6%) amid persistent low inflation pressures despite recent stimulus. October 2024 CPI rose modestly to +0.3% year-over-year—up from September's 0.4% but still below the ~3% target—reflecting weak domestic demand, property sector woes, and subdued consumer spending. People's Bank of China easing via rate cuts and liquidity injections has tempered deflation risks (<-0.4% bins <5%), yet consensus forecasts like IMF's 1.6% projection highlight uncertainty from trade tensions and fiscal rollout efficacy. Key swing factors include Q4 GDP data and further PBOC actions, with resolution hinging on full-year averages.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourInflation annuelle en Chine 2026
Inflation annuelle en Chine 2026
0,6 – 1,0 % 20%
1,1 – 1,5 % 16%
0,1 – 0,5 % 14%
1,6 – 2,0 % 13.0%
$27,859 Vol.
$27,859 Vol.
<-1,0 %
3%
-0,9 – -0,5 %
3%
-0,4 – 0,0 %
2%
0,1 – 0,5 %
14%
0,6 – 1,0 %
20%
1,1 – 1,5 %
16%
1,6 – 2,0 %
19%
2,0–2,4 %
5%
2,5 %+
12%
0,6 – 1,0 % 20%
1,1 – 1,5 % 16%
0,1 – 0,5 % 14%
1,6 – 2,0 % 13.0%
$27,859 Vol.
$27,859 Vol.
<-1,0 %
3%
-0,9 – -0,5 %
3%
-0,4 – 0,0 %
2%
0,1 – 0,5 %
14%
0,6 – 1,0 %
20%
1,1 – 1,5 %
16%
1,6 – 2,0 %
19%
2,0–2,4 %
5%
2,5 %+
12%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are closely divided on China 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 0.6–1.0% (19.5%) edging 1.6–2.0% (18.6%) amid persistent low inflation pressures despite recent stimulus. October 2024 CPI rose modestly to +0.3% year-over-year—up from September's 0.4% but still below the ~3% target—reflecting weak domestic demand, property sector woes, and subdued consumer spending. People's Bank of China easing via rate cuts and liquidity injections has tempered deflation risks (<-0.4% bins <5%), yet consensus forecasts like IMF's 1.6% projection highlight uncertainty from trade tensions and fiscal rollout efficacy. Key swing factors include Q4 GDP data and further PBOC actions, with resolution hinging on full-year averages.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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