The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 in the latest month and remaining in a narrow 4.3–4.5 percent band since mid-2025. This stability reflects a low-hire, low-fire labor market equilibrium amid Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent to balance cooling inflation pressures against downside risks to employment. Forecasters anticipate modest further softening, with the rate potentially peaking near 4.6–4.7 percent later in the year before any fiscal stimulus or rate cuts take hold, though tariffs, energy price volatility, and slower labor-force growth introduce uncertainty around the peak level. The next Employment Situation release on July 2 will provide fresh signals on whether the trend accelerates or stabilizes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$432,063 Vol.
10 janv. 2026
5,0 %
23%
5,5 %
16%
6,0 %
17%
7,0 %
7%
10,0 %
2%
$432,063 Vol.
5,0 %
$112,638 Vol.
23%
5,5 %
$189,388 Vol.
16%
6,0 %
$60,272 Vol.
17%
7,0 %
$27,989 Vol.
7%
10,0 %
$41,777 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 in the latest month and remaining in a narrow 4.3–4.5 percent band since mid-2025. This stability reflects a low-hire, low-fire labor market equilibrium amid Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent to balance cooling inflation pressures against downside risks to employment. Forecasters anticipate modest further softening, with the rate potentially peaking near 4.6–4.7 percent later in the year before any fiscal stimulus or rate cuts take hold, though tariffs, energy price volatility, and slower labor-force growth introduce uncertainty around the peak level. The next Employment Situation release on July 2 will provide fresh signals on whether the trend accelerates or stabilizes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$432,063Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 in the latest month and remaining in a narrow 4.3–4.5 percent band since mid-2025. This stability reflects a low-hire, low-fire labor market equilibrium amid Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent to balance cooling inflation pressures against downside risks to employment. Forecasters anticipate modest further softening, with the rate potentially peaking near 4.6–4.7 percent later in the year before any fiscal stimulus or rate cuts take hold, though tariffs, energy price volatility, and slower labor-force growth introduce uncertainty around the peak level. The next Employment Situation release on July 2 will provide fresh signals on whether the trend accelerates or stabilizes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$432,063Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 in the latest month and remaining in a narrow 4.3–4.5 percent band since mid-2025. This stability reflects a low-hire, low-fire labor market equilibrium amid Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent to balance cooling inflation pressures against downside risks to employment. Forecasters anticipate modest further softening, with the rate potentially peaking near 4.6–4.7 percent later in the year before any fiscal stimulus or rate cuts take hold, though tariffs, energy price volatility, and slower labor-force growth introduce uncertainty around the peak level. The next Employment Situation release on July 2 will provide fresh signals on whether the trend accelerates or stabilizes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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