The February 2026 BLS report, showing a surprise 92,000 decline in nonfarm payroll employment and unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4 percent amid downward revisions to prior months, has propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward a 69 percent implied probability for the year's peak unemployment reaching 5.0 percent. This sentiment diverges from the Federal Open Market Committee's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 4.4 percent for Q4 2026 (range 4.3–4.6 percent), reflecting cooling labor force participation at 62.0 percent and sluggish hiring despite solid GDP growth forecasts at 2.4 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the March employment situation release on April 3, with consensus eyeing 55,000–80,000 payroll gains and steady 4.4 percent unemployment, alongside May FOMC policy signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$286,132 Vol.
Jan 10, 2026
5,0 %
64%
5,5 %
34%
6,0 %
18%
7,0 %
15%
10,0 %
7%
$286,132 Vol.
5,0 %
$76,386 Vol.
64%
5,5 %
$174,371 Vol.
34%
6,0 %
$0 Vol.
18%
7,0 %
$16,436 Vol.
15%
10,0 %
$18,940 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The February 2026 BLS report, showing a surprise 92,000 decline in nonfarm payroll employment and unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4 percent amid downward revisions to prior months, has propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward a 69 percent implied probability for the year's peak unemployment reaching 5.0 percent. This sentiment diverges from the Federal Open Market Committee's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 4.4 percent for Q4 2026 (range 4.3–4.6 percent), reflecting cooling labor force participation at 62.0 percent and sluggish hiring despite solid GDP growth forecasts at 2.4 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the March employment situation release on April 3, with consensus eyeing 55,000–80,000 payroll gains and steady 4.4 percent unemployment, alongside May FOMC policy signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$286,132Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The February 2026 BLS report, showing a surprise 92,000 decline in nonfarm payroll employment and unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4 percent amid downward revisions to prior months, has propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward a 69 percent implied probability for the year's peak unemployment reaching 5.0 percent. This sentiment diverges from the Federal Open Market Committee's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 4.4 percent for Q4 2026 (range 4.3–4.6 percent), reflecting cooling labor force participation at 62.0 percent and sluggish hiring despite solid GDP growth forecasts at 2.4 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the March employment situation release on April 3, with consensus eyeing 55,000–80,000 payroll gains and steady 4.4 percent unemployment, alongside May FOMC policy signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$286,132Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 2026 BLS report, showing a surprise 92,000 decline in nonfarm payroll employment and unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4 percent amid downward revisions to prior months, has propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward a 69 percent implied probability for the year's peak unemployment reaching 5.0 percent. This sentiment diverges from the Federal Open Market Committee's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 4.4 percent for Q4 2026 (range 4.3–4.6 percent), reflecting cooling labor force participation at 62.0 percent and sluggish hiring despite solid GDP growth forecasts at 2.4 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the March employment situation release on April 3, with consensus eyeing 55,000–80,000 payroll gains and steady 4.4 percent unemployment, alongside May FOMC policy signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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