The February 2026 BLS employment report showed an unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4% from January's 4.3%, reflecting labor market softening amid slower GDP growth and sector-specific losses in federal government and retail. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections maintain a median unemployment rate of 4.4% for Q4 2026, consistent with economist forecasts clustering in the mid-4% range for the year's peak, though some see upside risks to 4.8%. Recent stability in weekly initial claims (210,000 for week ending March 22) tempers immediate concerns. Key catalysts include the March jobs report on April 4 and May FOMC meeting, which could shift trader consensus on recession odds and policy response.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$286,132 Vol.
Jan 10, 2026
5,0 %
66%
5,5 %
34%
6,0 %
18%
7,0 %
15%
10,0 %
7%
$286,132 Vol.
5,0 %
$76,386 Vol.
66%
5,5 %
$174,371 Vol.
34%
6,0 %
$0 Vol.
18%
7,0 %
$16,436 Vol.
15%
10,0 %
$18,940 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The February 2026 BLS employment report showed an unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4% from January's 4.3%, reflecting labor market softening amid slower GDP growth and sector-specific losses in federal government and retail. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections maintain a median unemployment rate of 4.4% for Q4 2026, consistent with economist forecasts clustering in the mid-4% range for the year's peak, though some see upside risks to 4.8%. Recent stability in weekly initial claims (210,000 for week ending March 22) tempers immediate concerns. Key catalysts include the March jobs report on April 4 and May FOMC meeting, which could shift trader consensus on recession odds and policy response.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$286,132Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The February 2026 BLS employment report showed an unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4% from January's 4.3%, reflecting labor market softening amid slower GDP growth and sector-specific losses in federal government and retail. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections maintain a median unemployment rate of 4.4% for Q4 2026, consistent with economist forecasts clustering in the mid-4% range for the year's peak, though some see upside risks to 4.8%. Recent stability in weekly initial claims (210,000 for week ending March 22) tempers immediate concerns. Key catalysts include the March jobs report on April 4 and May FOMC meeting, which could shift trader consensus on recession odds and policy response.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$286,132Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 2026 BLS employment report showed an unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4% from January's 4.3%, reflecting labor market softening amid slower GDP growth and sector-specific losses in federal government and retail. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections maintain a median unemployment rate of 4.4% for Q4 2026, consistent with economist forecasts clustering in the mid-4% range for the year's peak, though some see upside risks to 4.8%. Recent stability in weekly initial claims (210,000 for week ending March 22) tempers immediate concerns. Key catalysts include the March jobs report on April 4 and May FOMC meeting, which could shift trader consensus on recession odds and policy response.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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