Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls, with implied probabilities tightly clustered: 100k+ at 27.5%, 50k-100k at 23%, and 0-50k at 22%, reflecting uncertainty after February's unexpected -92,000 job loss—blamed on severe weather and strikes—against economist forecasts of 50,000-60,000 gains per FactSet and Bloomberg medians. Leading indicators are mixed, including declining JOLTS job openings to 6.9 million, initial jobless claims rising to 210,000, weak ADP preliminary data averaging 10,000 weekly hires early March, and divergent ISM employment indexes (manufacturing contracting at 48.8, services expanding at 51.8). The closely matched odds hinge on the degree of February distortions unwinding ahead of today's Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien d'emplois ont été ajoutés en mars ?
Combien d'emplois ont été ajoutés en mars ?
100k+ 28%
50 000 – 100 000 23%
0 – 50k 22%
-50k – 0 12%
$17,355 Vol.
$17,355 Vol.
<-150k
3%
-150k – -100k
4%
-100k – -50k
2%
-50k – 0
12%
0 – 50k
22%
50 000 – 100 000
23%
100k+
28%
100k+ 28%
50 000 – 100 000 23%
0 – 50k 22%
-50k – 0 12%
$17,355 Vol.
$17,355 Vol.
<-150k
3%
-150k – -100k
4%
-100k – -50k
2%
-50k – 0
12%
0 – 50k
22%
50 000 – 100 000
23%
100k+
28%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls, with implied probabilities tightly clustered: 100k+ at 27.5%, 50k-100k at 23%, and 0-50k at 22%, reflecting uncertainty after February's unexpected -92,000 job loss—blamed on severe weather and strikes—against economist forecasts of 50,000-60,000 gains per FactSet and Bloomberg medians. Leading indicators are mixed, including declining JOLTS job openings to 6.9 million, initial jobless claims rising to 210,000, weak ADP preliminary data averaging 10,000 weekly hires early March, and divergent ISM employment indexes (manufacturing contracting at 48.8, services expanding at 51.8). The closely matched odds hinge on the degree of February distortions unwinding ahead of today's Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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