Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin contest between sub-0.75% annual inflation (39.5% implied probability) and 2.25-2.99% (35%), driven by the Reserve Bank of India's aggressive 50-basis-point repo rate cut to 6.5% in October amid October CPI at 6.21%—above the 4% target but with core pressures easing. Key differentiators include volatile food inflation from uneven monsoons versus favorable global oil dynamics and robust supply chains favoring ultra-low odds, while sticky wage growth and 7%+ GDP expansion support mid-range bets. Upcoming December MPC meeting and monthly CPI releases will sharpen resolution thresholds, with FY26 forecasts clustering near 4.2% underscoring sentiment's forward-looking tilt.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2,25 % à 2,99 % 31%
<0,75 % 24%
0,75 % à 1,49 % 14%
3,00 % à 3,74 % 11%
$56,402 Vol.
$56,402 Vol.
<0,75 %
29%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
14%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
19%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
46%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
11%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
19%
4,50 % +
11%
2,25 % à 2,99 % 31%
<0,75 % 24%
0,75 % à 1,49 % 14%
3,00 % à 3,74 % 11%
$56,402 Vol.
$56,402 Vol.
<0,75 %
29%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
14%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
19%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
46%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
11%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
19%
4,50 % +
11%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin contest between sub-0.75% annual inflation (39.5% implied probability) and 2.25-2.99% (35%), driven by the Reserve Bank of India's aggressive 50-basis-point repo rate cut to 6.5% in October amid October CPI at 6.21%—above the 4% target but with core pressures easing. Key differentiators include volatile food inflation from uneven monsoons versus favorable global oil dynamics and robust supply chains favoring ultra-low odds, while sticky wage growth and 7%+ GDP expansion support mid-range bets. Upcoming December MPC meeting and monthly CPI releases will sharpen resolution thresholds, with FY26 forecasts clustering near 4.2% underscoring sentiment's forward-looking tilt.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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