Traders on Polymarket heavily favor India's 2026 annual inflation settling in the 2.25%-2.99% band at 47% implied probability, with 71% odds for sub-3% outcomes, driven by expectations of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate cuts amid cooling core inflation and favorable base effects despite recent food price spikes. October 2024 CPI surged to 6.21% year-over-year on vegetable costs, but RBI's FY26 projection of around 4.2%-4.5%—within its 4% target tolerance—underpins sentiment for moderation, supported by robust monsoon harvests, steady rupee, and global commodity relief. Upcoming RBI MPC meeting on December 4-6 could shift odds if dovish signals emerge, while fiscal consolidation aids demand control.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2,25 % à 2,99 % 31%
1,50 % à 2,24 % 26%
3,75 % à 4,49 % 17%
4,50 % + 13%
$56,425 Vol.
$56,425 Vol.
<0,75 %
8%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
8%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
26%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
38%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
12%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
17%
4,50 % +
13%
2,25 % à 2,99 % 31%
1,50 % à 2,24 % 26%
3,75 % à 4,49 % 17%
4,50 % + 13%
$56,425 Vol.
$56,425 Vol.
<0,75 %
8%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
8%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
26%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
38%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
12%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
17%
4,50 % +
13%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders on Polymarket heavily favor India's 2026 annual inflation settling in the 2.25%-2.99% band at 47% implied probability, with 71% odds for sub-3% outcomes, driven by expectations of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate cuts amid cooling core inflation and favorable base effects despite recent food price spikes. October 2024 CPI surged to 6.21% year-over-year on vegetable costs, but RBI's FY26 projection of around 4.2%-4.5%—within its 4% target tolerance—underpins sentiment for moderation, supported by robust monsoon harvests, steady rupee, and global commodity relief. Upcoming RBI MPC meeting on December 4-6 could shift odds if dovish signals emerge, while fiscal consolidation aids demand control.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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