Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 32.5% for the 4.0-4.4% band, driven by persistent headline inflation holding steady at 3.0% through February 2026 amid Middle East conflict risks. Escalating tensions, including Iran war disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, have spiked energy prices and prompted warnings of food inflation hitting 9-12%, reinforcing sticky services inflation at 4.3%. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in March, signaling vigilance. Competitive dynamics hinge on energy shock persistence versus potential easing, with March CPI release on April 22 and April 30 MPC meeting as pivotal catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourInflation annuelle au Royaume-Uni 2026
Inflation annuelle au Royaume-Uni 2026
2,0–2,4 % 25%
2,5–2,9 % 23%
3,5–3,9 % 18%
<1,0 % 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 janv. 2027
<1,0 %
7%
1,0–1,4 %
6%
1,5–1,9 %
21%
2,0–2,4 %
25%
2,5–2,9 %
23%
3,5–3,9 %
18%
4,0-4,4 %
32%
4,5 % +
42%
2,0–2,4 % 25%
2,5–2,9 % 23%
3,5–3,9 % 18%
<1,0 % 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 janv. 2027
<1,0 %
$559 Vol.
7%
1,0–1,4 %
$0 Vol.
6%
1,5–1,9 %
$448 Vol.
21%
2,0–2,4 %
$267 Vol.
25%
2,5–2,9 %
$350 Vol.
23%
3,5–3,9 %
$221 Vol.
18%
4,0-4,4 %
$0 Vol.
32%
4,5 % +
$243 Vol.
42%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 32.5% for the 4.0-4.4% band, driven by persistent headline inflation holding steady at 3.0% through February 2026 amid Middle East conflict risks. Escalating tensions, including Iran war disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, have spiked energy prices and prompted warnings of food inflation hitting 9-12%, reinforcing sticky services inflation at 4.3%. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in March, signaling vigilance. Competitive dynamics hinge on energy shock persistence versus potential easing, with March CPI release on April 22 and April 30 MPC meeting as pivotal catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,088Date de fin
20 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 32.5% for the 4.0-4.4% band, driven by persistent headline inflation holding steady at 3.0% through February 2026 amid Middle East conflict risks. Escalating tensions, including Iran war disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, have spiked energy prices and prompted warnings of food inflation hitting 9-12%, reinforcing sticky services inflation at 4.3%. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in March, signaling vigilance. Competitive dynamics hinge on energy shock persistence versus potential easing, with March CPI release on April 22 and April 30 MPC meeting as pivotal catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$2,088Date de fin
20 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 32.5% for the 4.0-4.4% band, driven by persistent headline inflation holding steady at 3.0% through February 2026 amid Middle East conflict risks. Escalating tensions, including Iran war disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, have spiked energy prices and prompted warnings of food inflation hitting 9-12%, reinforcing sticky services inflation at 4.3%. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in March, signaling vigilance. Competitive dynamics hinge on energy shock persistence versus potential easing, with March CPI release on April 22 and April 30 MPC meeting as pivotal catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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