Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% band, with 41.5% for 5.0-5.5%, centering expectations around 4.8% amid robust early-year indicators. The primary catalyst is the National Bureau of Statistics' March manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rising to 50.4—its fastest expansion in a year and above the 50.1 forecast—signaling demand recovery after January-February contraction, bolstered by surging exports and high-tech investment. January-February data exceeded Reuters polls, with industrial output accelerating and retail sales up 2.8%, aligning with Beijing's 4.5-5% full-year target set at the March Two Sessions. Key watch: NBS Q1 GDP release around April 15, alongside March industrial production and retail sales figures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour4,5-5,0 % 52%
5,0-5,5 % 42%
5,5-6,0 % 1.2%
4,0-4,5 % <1%
$217,385 Vol.
$217,385 Vol.
17 avr. 2026
<3,5 %
<1%
3,5-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-4,5 %
1%
4,5-5,0 %
52%
5,0-5,5 %
42%
5,5-6,0 %
1%
6,0 %+
<1%
4,5-5,0 % 52%
5,0-5,5 % 42%
5,5-6,0 % 1.2%
4,0-4,5 % <1%
$217,385 Vol.
$217,385 Vol.
17 avr. 2026
<3,5 %
$14,619 Vol.
<1%
3,5-4,0 %
$51,028 Vol.
<1%
4,0-4,5 %
$33,657 Vol.
1%
4,5-5,0 %
$21,836 Vol.
52%
5,0-5,5 %
$20,979 Vol.
42%
5,5-6,0 %
$51,972 Vol.
1%
6,0 %+
$23,295 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% band, with 41.5% for 5.0-5.5%, centering expectations around 4.8% amid robust early-year indicators. The primary catalyst is the National Bureau of Statistics' March manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rising to 50.4—its fastest expansion in a year and above the 50.1 forecast—signaling demand recovery after January-February contraction, bolstered by surging exports and high-tech investment. January-February data exceeded Reuters polls, with industrial output accelerating and retail sales up 2.8%, aligning with Beijing's 4.5-5% full-year target set at the March Two Sessions. Key watch: NBS Q1 GDP release around April 15, alongside March industrial production and retail sales figures.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Volume
$217,385Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% band, with 41.5% for 5.0-5.5%, centering expectations around 4.8% amid robust early-year indicators. The primary catalyst is the National Bureau of Statistics' March manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rising to 50.4—its fastest expansion in a year and above the 50.1 forecast—signaling demand recovery after January-February contraction, bolstered by surging exports and high-tech investment. January-February data exceeded Reuters polls, with industrial output accelerating and retail sales up 2.8%, aligning with Beijing's 4.5-5% full-year target set at the March Two Sessions. Key watch: NBS Q1 GDP release around April 15, alongside March industrial production and retail sales figures.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$217,385Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth in the 4.5-5.0% band, with 41.5% for 5.0-5.5%, centering expectations around 4.8% amid robust early-year indicators. The primary catalyst is the National Bureau of Statistics' March manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rising to 50.4—its fastest expansion in a year and above the 50.1 forecast—signaling demand recovery after January-February contraction, bolstered by surging exports and high-tech investment. January-February data exceeded Reuters polls, with industrial output accelerating and retail sales up 2.8%, aligning with Beijing's 4.5-5% full-year target set at the March Two Sessions. Key watch: NBS Q1 GDP release around April 15, alongside March industrial production and retail sales figures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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