Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability of UK annual GDP growth below 1% in 2026, with <0% (32%) and 0-1% (29%) outcomes closely contested amid recent economic stagnation and geopolitical headwinds. January 2026 GDP flatlined at 0% monthly per ONS data released March 13, while March flash PMI slumped to a six-month low of 51.0 on March 24, signaling weakest output growth since September amid Iran conflict-driven energy cost spikes and inflation pressures. Unemployment hit 5.2% in Q4 2025, prompting OBR and OECD to slash forecasts to 0.7-1.1%; Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on March 19, projecting modest Q1 recovery. Key swing factors include Middle East escalation versus potential BoE cuts, with Q1 GDP due June 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour0-1 % 46%
<0 32%
3-4 % 11.6%
1-2 % 11%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
32%
0-1 %
29%
1-2 %
21%
2-3 %
6%
3-4 %
12%
4-5 %
9%
5 %+
8%
0-1 % 46%
<0 32%
3-4 % 11.6%
1-2 % 11%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$229 Vol.
32%
0-1 %
$248 Vol.
29%
1-2 %
$205 Vol.
21%
2-3 %
$206 Vol.
6%
3-4 %
$193 Vol.
12%
4-5 %
$283 Vol.
9%
5 %+
$220 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability of UK annual GDP growth below 1% in 2026, with <0% (32%) and 0-1% (29%) outcomes closely contested amid recent economic stagnation and geopolitical headwinds. January 2026 GDP flatlined at 0% monthly per ONS data released March 13, while March flash PMI slumped to a six-month low of 51.0 on March 24, signaling weakest output growth since September amid Iran conflict-driven energy cost spikes and inflation pressures. Unemployment hit 5.2% in Q4 2025, prompting OBR and OECD to slash forecasts to 0.7-1.1%; Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on March 19, projecting modest Q1 recovery. Key swing factors include Middle East escalation versus potential BoE cuts, with Q1 GDP due June 30.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$1,584Date de fin
Feb 12, 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability of UK annual GDP growth below 1% in 2026, with <0% (32%) and 0-1% (29%) outcomes closely contested amid recent economic stagnation and geopolitical headwinds. January 2026 GDP flatlined at 0% monthly per ONS data released March 13, while March flash PMI slumped to a six-month low of 51.0 on March 24, signaling weakest output growth since September amid Iran conflict-driven energy cost spikes and inflation pressures. Unemployment hit 5.2% in Q4 2025, prompting OBR and OECD to slash forecasts to 0.7-1.1%; Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on March 19, projecting modest Q1 recovery. Key swing factors include Middle East escalation versus potential BoE cuts, with Q1 GDP due June 30.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,584Date de fin
Feb 12, 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability of UK annual GDP growth below 1% in 2026, with <0% (32%) and 0-1% (29%) outcomes closely contested amid recent economic stagnation and geopolitical headwinds. January 2026 GDP flatlined at 0% monthly per ONS data released March 13, while March flash PMI slumped to a six-month low of 51.0 on March 24, signaling weakest output growth since September amid Iran conflict-driven energy cost spikes and inflation pressures. Unemployment hit 5.2% in Q4 2025, prompting OBR and OECD to slash forecasts to 0.7-1.1%; Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on March 19, projecting modest Q1 recovery. Key swing factors include Middle East escalation versus potential BoE cuts, with Q1 GDP due June 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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