Trader sentiment on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities nearly even at 31.5% for 1.5–1.9% and 30.5% for 0.5–0.9%, reflecting uncertainty in the post-Q4 2025 contraction (-0.2% q/q, revised March 9). Strong semiconductor exports surged 160% y/y in February to a record $25 billion, extending nine months of gains and fueling optimism via AI demand, while factory output rose 7.1% y/y in January and PMI hit a 17-month high. However, construction weakness and mixed retail sales temper expectations, diverging from full-year consensus around 2.0% (Bank of Korea, KDI). Key swing factors include March exports and industrial data ahead of the April 28 advance estimate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCroissance du PIB de la Corée du Sud au T1 2026 ?
Croissance du PIB de la Corée du Sud au T1 2026 ?
2,0–2,4 % 31%
2,5 %+ 22%
1,0–1,4 % 19.7%
0,0–0,4 % 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0 %
15%
0,0–0,4 %
5%
0,5–0,9 %
30%
1,0–1,4 %
20%
1,5–1,9 %
32%
2,0–2,4 %
25%
2,5 %+
22%
2,0–2,4 % 31%
2,5 %+ 22%
1,0–1,4 % 19.7%
0,0–0,4 % 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0 %
$0 Vol.
15%
0,0–0,4 %
$0 Vol.
5%
0,5–0,9 %
$0 Vol.
30%
1,0–1,4 %
$0 Vol.
20%
1,5–1,9 %
$267 Vol.
32%
2,0–2,4 %
$0 Vol.
25%
2,5 %+
$6,175 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader sentiment on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities nearly even at 31.5% for 1.5–1.9% and 30.5% for 0.5–0.9%, reflecting uncertainty in the post-Q4 2025 contraction (-0.2% q/q, revised March 9). Strong semiconductor exports surged 160% y/y in February to a record $25 billion, extending nine months of gains and fueling optimism via AI demand, while factory output rose 7.1% y/y in January and PMI hit a 17-month high. However, construction weakness and mixed retail sales temper expectations, diverging from full-year consensus around 2.0% (Bank of Korea, KDI). Key swing factors include March exports and industrial data ahead of the April 28 advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$6,442Date de fin
Apr 23, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader sentiment on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities nearly even at 31.5% for 1.5–1.9% and 30.5% for 0.5–0.9%, reflecting uncertainty in the post-Q4 2025 contraction (-0.2% q/q, revised March 9). Strong semiconductor exports surged 160% y/y in February to a record $25 billion, extending nine months of gains and fueling optimism via AI demand, while factory output rose 7.1% y/y in January and PMI hit a 17-month high. However, construction weakness and mixed retail sales temper expectations, diverging from full-year consensus around 2.0% (Bank of Korea, KDI). Key swing factors include March exports and industrial data ahead of the April 28 advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$6,442Date de fin
Apr 23, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities nearly even at 31.5% for 1.5–1.9% and 30.5% for 0.5–0.9%, reflecting uncertainty in the post-Q4 2025 contraction (-0.2% q/q, revised March 9). Strong semiconductor exports surged 160% y/y in February to a record $25 billion, extending nine months of gains and fueling optimism via AI demand, while factory output rose 7.1% y/y in January and PMI hit a 17-month high. However, construction weakness and mixed retail sales temper expectations, diverging from full-year consensus around 2.0% (Bank of Korea, KDI). Key swing factors include March exports and industrial data ahead of the April 28 advance estimate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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