Market icon
Économie·Mexique

Croissance du PIB du Mexique au T1 2026 ?

Market icon
Économie·Mexique

Croissance du PIB du Mexique au T1 2026 ?

avr. 30

avr. 30

0,5-1,0 % 42%

1,0-1,5 % 31%

2,0-2,5 % 28%

0,0-0,5 % 22.6%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

0,5-1,0 % 42%

1,0-1,5 % 31%

2,0-2,5 % 28%

0,0-0,5 % 22.6%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

<0,0 %

$192 Vol.

4%

0,0-0,5 %

$278 Vol.

23%

0,5-1,0 %

$351 Vol.

42%

1,0-1,5 %

$376 Vol.

31%

1,5-2,0 %

$169 Vol.

1%

2,0-2,5 %

$0 Vol.

28%

>2,5 %

$127 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth below 1.5%, led by the 0.5-1.0% bin at 40.5%, driven by weak monthly Indicador Global de Actividad Económica (IGAE) data: a sharp 0.9% monthly contraction in January—the steepest in over a year—and an unexpected -0.3% annual drop in March versus the 1.7% forecast. These figures signal manufacturing weakness and soft services amid U.S. trade uncertainties and lagging nearshoring gains, offsetting resilient consumption. Banxico's March rate cut to 10.00% aims to bolster activity, aligning with full-year 2026 forecasts upgraded to 1.6% (Banxico) and 1.8% (BBVA Research). Official INEGI Q1 GDP releases expected late April could shift pricing.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,493
Date de fin
30 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth below 1.5%, led by the 0.5-1.0% bin at 40.5%, driven by weak monthly Indicador Global de Actividad Económica (IGAE) data: a sharp 0.9% monthly contraction in January—the steepest in over a year—and an unexpected -0.3% annual drop in March versus the 1.7% forecast. These figures signal manufacturing weakness and soft services amid U.S. trade uncertainties and lagging nearshoring gains, offsetting resilient consumption. Banxico's March rate cut to 10.00% aims to bolster activity, aligning with full-year 2026 forecasts upgraded to 1.6% (Banxico) and 1.8% (BBVA Research). Official INEGI Q1 GDP releases expected late April could shift pricing.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,493
Date de fin
30 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Questions fréquentes

« Croissance du PIB du Mexique au T1 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 0,5-1,0 % » à 42%, suivi de « 1,0-1,5 % » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 42¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 42% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Croissance du PIB du Mexique au T1 2026 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 31, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Croissance du PIB du Mexique au T1 2026 ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Croissance du PIB du Mexique au T1 2026 ? » est « 0,5-1,0 % » à 42%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 42% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 1,0-1,5 % » à 31%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Croissance du PIB du Mexique au T1 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.