Traders on Polymarket price a 52.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point policy rate hike to 1.00% at the Bank of Japan's April 27 meeting, narrowly ahead of no change at 42.5%, reflecting hawkish signals from a senior official today affirming rate increases if economic forecasts hold despite Iran war fallout and oil price pressures. This consensus builds on March's steady 0.75% rate hold, upbeat Q1 tankan sentiment among manufacturers, and Governor Ueda's recent vigilance on yen weakness and underlying inflation accelerating toward 2%, even as Tokyo core CPI cooled to 1.7% in March. Key swing factors include fresh wage data and Mideast risks ahead of the decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHausse de 25 points de base 50%
Pas de changement 48%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base 2.4%
Baisse des taux <1%
$324,498 Vol.
$324,498 Vol.
Baisse des taux
<1%
Pas de changement
48%
Hausse de 25 points de base
50%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
2%
Hausse de 25 points de base 50%
Pas de changement 48%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base 2.4%
Baisse des taux <1%
$324,498 Vol.
$324,498 Vol.
Baisse des taux
<1%
Pas de changement
48%
Hausse de 25 points de base
50%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders on Polymarket price a 52.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point policy rate hike to 1.00% at the Bank of Japan's April 27 meeting, narrowly ahead of no change at 42.5%, reflecting hawkish signals from a senior official today affirming rate increases if economic forecasts hold despite Iran war fallout and oil price pressures. This consensus builds on March's steady 0.75% rate hold, upbeat Q1 tankan sentiment among manufacturers, and Governor Ueda's recent vigilance on yen weakness and underlying inflation accelerating toward 2%, even as Tokyo core CPI cooled to 1.7% in March. Key swing factors include fresh wage data and Mideast risks ahead of the decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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