Bank of Japan policymakers maintained the short-term policy rate at 0.75% following the April 27-28 Monetary Policy Meeting, cementing trader consensus at 100% for no change amid escalating Middle East tensions clouding the economic outlook. Recent hotter-than-expected core inflation and a tightening labor market had built pre-meeting hike speculation, but Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious remarks emphasized vigilance on global risks, shifting market-implied odds decisively toward hold. A split 6-3 board vote—with three dissenters favoring an increase—highlights internal hawkishness, elevating June rate hike probabilities while affirming current positioning. Only an unprecedented reversal in official confirmation could challenge this outcome, with Ueda's post-meeting press conference key for forward guidance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPas de changement 100.0%
Baisse des taux <1%
Hausse de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$1,418,416 Vol.
$1,418,416 Vol.
Baisse des taux
Non
Pas de changement
Oui
Hausse de 25 points de base
Non
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
Non
Pas de changement 100.0%
Baisse des taux <1%
Hausse de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$1,418,416 Vol.
$1,418,416 Vol.
Baisse des taux
Non
Pas de changement
Oui
Hausse de 25 points de base
Non
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
Non
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Bank of Japan policymakers maintained the short-term policy rate at 0.75% following the April 27-28 Monetary Policy Meeting, cementing trader consensus at 100% for no change amid escalating Middle East tensions clouding the economic outlook. Recent hotter-than-expected core inflation and a tightening labor market had built pre-meeting hike speculation, but Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious remarks emphasized vigilance on global risks, shifting market-implied odds decisively toward hold. A split 6-3 board vote—with three dissenters favoring an increase—highlights internal hawkishness, elevating June rate hike probabilities while affirming current positioning. Only an unprecedented reversal in official confirmation could challenge this outcome, with Ueda's post-meeting press conference key for forward guidance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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