Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by persistent core inflation exceeding 2%—with February's core-core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors—and yen weakness near 159 per dollar amid intervention threats. Surging oil from Iran conflict risks bolsters upside inflation pressures, while the March Tankan survey showed solid business sentiment with large manufacturers at +17, supporting normalization. No-change odds at 34.5% reflect Middle East uncertainty clouding the outlook, as Governor Ueda kept options open post-March hold at 0.75%; larger hikes remain negligible amid gradualist stance. Key watch: fresh CPI data ahead of decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHausse de 25 points de base 64%
Pas de changement 35%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse des taux <1%
$301,517 Vol.
$301,517 Vol.
Baisse des taux
1%
Pas de changement
35%
Hausse de 25 points de base
64%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Hausse de 25 points de base 64%
Pas de changement 35%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse des taux <1%
$301,517 Vol.
$301,517 Vol.
Baisse des taux
1%
Pas de changement
35%
Hausse de 25 points de base
64%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the April 26-27 meeting, driven by persistent core inflation exceeding 2%—with February's core-core CPI at 2.2% excluding special factors—and yen weakness near 159 per dollar amid intervention threats. Surging oil from Iran conflict risks bolsters upside inflation pressures, while the March Tankan survey showed solid business sentiment with large manufacturers at +17, supporting normalization. No-change odds at 34.5% reflect Middle East uncertainty clouding the outlook, as Governor Ueda kept options open post-March hold at 0.75%; larger hikes remain negligible amid gradualist stance. Key watch: fresh CPI data ahead of decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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