Polymarket traders are assigning a 45% implied probability to US CPI exceeding 3% in 2026, up sharply post-election on fears of Trump-era tariffs and deportations fueling supply-side inflation. October CPI printed at a tame 2.6% YoY, with core at 3.3%, supporting the Fed's recent 25bps rate cut to 4.50-4.75%. Yet, 5-year TIPS breakeven inflation has risen to 2.35%, reflecting policy uncertainty diverging from Fed's September dot plot median of 2.1% PCE for 2026. Trader consensus hedges against fiscal expansion, with pivotal December 11 CPI and December 18 FOMC dots poised to recalibrate odds amid resilient growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$224,585 Vol.
Au-dessus de 3 %
98%
Au-dessus de 3,5 %
67%
Au-dessus de 4 %
47%
Au-dessus de 5 %
26%
Au-dessus de 6 %
14%
Au-dessus de 8 %
11%
Au-dessus de 10 %
4%
$224,585 Vol.
Au-dessus de 3 %
98%
Au-dessus de 3,5 %
67%
Au-dessus de 4 %
47%
Au-dessus de 5 %
26%
Au-dessus de 6 %
14%
Au-dessus de 8 %
11%
Au-dessus de 10 %
4%
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are assigning a 45% implied probability to US CPI exceeding 3% in 2026, up sharply post-election on fears of Trump-era tariffs and deportations fueling supply-side inflation. October CPI printed at a tame 2.6% YoY, with core at 3.3%, supporting the Fed's recent 25bps rate cut to 4.50-4.75%. Yet, 5-year TIPS breakeven inflation has risen to 2.35%, reflecting policy uncertainty diverging from Fed's September dot plot median of 2.1% PCE for 2026. Trader consensus hedges against fiscal expansion, with pivotal December 11 CPI and December 18 FOMC dots poised to recalibrate odds amid resilient growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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