Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—25-29.9% at 23.5% edging 20-24.9% at 22.5%—reflect Argentina's disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity, tempered by persistent monthly CPI pressures. February's 2.9% month-on-month rate matched January's but lifted year-on-year inflation to 33.1% from 32.4%, driven by food and administered prices, prompting BBVA and FocusEconomics to revise 2026 forecasts upward to 24% from 22%. Money supply growth slowed to 28.3% year-on-year in January, supporting trader bets on further cooling via sustained primary surpluses and benchmark rates falling to 20%. Key swing factors include March CPI data (due mid-April) and subsidy adjustments, with sustained 2.5-3% monthly prints favoring the 25-30% cluster amid fragile monetary framework risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour25-29,9 % 24%
20-24,9 % 23%
30,0-34,9 % 13.3%
40-44,9 % 9.6%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<20 %
6%
20-24,9 %
23%
25-29,9 %
24%
30,0-34,9 %
13%
35–39,9 %
9%
40-44,9 %
10%
45 %+
9%
25-29,9 % 24%
20-24,9 % 23%
30,0-34,9 % 13.3%
40-44,9 % 9.6%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<20 %
$0 Vol.
6%
20-24,9 %
$0 Vol.
23%
25-29,9 %
$0 Vol.
24%
30,0-34,9 %
$367 Vol.
13%
35–39,9 %
$0 Vol.
9%
40-44,9 %
$0 Vol.
10%
45 %+
$0 Vol.
9%
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—25-29.9% at 23.5% edging 20-24.9% at 22.5%—reflect Argentina's disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity, tempered by persistent monthly CPI pressures. February's 2.9% month-on-month rate matched January's but lifted year-on-year inflation to 33.1% from 32.4%, driven by food and administered prices, prompting BBVA and FocusEconomics to revise 2026 forecasts upward to 24% from 22%. Money supply growth slowed to 28.3% year-on-year in January, supporting trader bets on further cooling via sustained primary surpluses and benchmark rates falling to 20%. Key swing factors include March CPI data (due mid-April) and subsidy adjustments, with sustained 2.5-3% monthly prints favoring the 25-30% cluster amid fragile monetary framework risks.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
Volume
$367Date de fin
Jan 10, 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—25-29.9% at 23.5% edging 20-24.9% at 22.5%—reflect Argentina's disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity, tempered by persistent monthly CPI pressures. February's 2.9% month-on-month rate matched January's but lifted year-on-year inflation to 33.1% from 32.4%, driven by food and administered prices, prompting BBVA and FocusEconomics to revise 2026 forecasts upward to 24% from 22%. Money supply growth slowed to 28.3% year-on-year in January, supporting trader bets on further cooling via sustained primary surpluses and benchmark rates falling to 20%. Key swing factors include March CPI data (due mid-April) and subsidy adjustments, with sustained 2.5-3% monthly prints favoring the 25-30% cluster amid fragile monetary framework risks.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$367Date de fin
Jan 10, 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—25-29.9% at 23.5% edging 20-24.9% at 22.5%—reflect Argentina's disinflation trajectory under President Milei's fiscal austerity, tempered by persistent monthly CPI pressures. February's 2.9% month-on-month rate matched January's but lifted year-on-year inflation to 33.1% from 32.4%, driven by food and administered prices, prompting BBVA and FocusEconomics to revise 2026 forecasts upward to 24% from 22%. Money supply growth slowed to 28.3% year-on-year in January, supporting trader bets on further cooling via sustained primary surpluses and benchmark rates falling to 20%. Key swing factors include March CPI data (due mid-April) and subsidy adjustments, with sustained 2.5-3% monthly prints favoring the 25-30% cluster amid fragile monetary framework risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes