Polymarket traders price South Africa 2026 annual CPI inflation most heavily in the 3.2-3.5% band at 27% implied probability, with 4.7-5.0% (23%) and 3.5-3.8% (23%) in tight contention, reflecting uncertainty over the disinflation trajectory. September CPI eased to 3.0% year-over-year—its lowest since 2020—driven by falling fuel and food prices, bolstering lower-range bets amid South African Reserve Bank (SARB) easing with a 25 basis point repo rate cut to 8% in September. However, SARB's latest projections average 4.1% for 2026, factoring persistent services inflation, rand depreciation risks, and electricity tariff hikes. Key differentiators include fiscal consolidation under the Government of National Unity and global commodity trends; watch October CPI (released November 13 at 2.8%) and December SARB meeting for resolution catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourInflation annuelle en Afrique du Sud 2026
Inflation annuelle en Afrique du Sud 2026
4,1-4,4 % 32%
4,7-5,0 % 26%
3,5-3,8 % 25.0%
3,8-4,1 % 24.6%
<2,6 %
4%
2,6-2,9 %
10%
2,9-3,2 %
16%
3,2-3,5 %
24%
3,5-3,8 %
25%
3,8-4,1 %
25%
4,1-4,4 %
23%
4,4-4,7 %
20%
4,7-5,0 %
26%
>5,0 %
19%
4,1-4,4 % 32%
4,7-5,0 % 26%
3,5-3,8 % 25.0%
3,8-4,1 % 24.6%
<2,6 %
4%
2,6-2,9 %
10%
2,9-3,2 %
16%
3,2-3,5 %
24%
3,5-3,8 %
25%
3,8-4,1 %
25%
4,1-4,4 %
23%
4,4-4,7 %
20%
4,7-5,0 %
26%
>5,0 %
19%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Marché ouvert : Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price South Africa 2026 annual CPI inflation most heavily in the 3.2-3.5% band at 27% implied probability, with 4.7-5.0% (23%) and 3.5-3.8% (23%) in tight contention, reflecting uncertainty over the disinflation trajectory. September CPI eased to 3.0% year-over-year—its lowest since 2020—driven by falling fuel and food prices, bolstering lower-range bets amid South African Reserve Bank (SARB) easing with a 25 basis point repo rate cut to 8% in September. However, SARB's latest projections average 4.1% for 2026, factoring persistent services inflation, rand depreciation risks, and electricity tariff hikes. Key differentiators include fiscal consolidation under the Government of National Unity and global commodity trends; watch October CPI (released November 13 at 2.8%) and December SARB meeting for resolution catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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