Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for Anthropic surpassing OpenAI's valuation by year-end 2026, driven primarily by Anthropic's annualized revenue run-rate exploding to $30 billion by early April—eclipsing OpenAI's $25 billion—fueled by enterprise demand for Claude models and lower training costs. OpenAI's $852 billion March funding valuation faces growing investor scrutiny amid a pivot to enterprise markets and projected $14 billion 2026 losses, contrasting Anthropic's efficient fundamentals post its $380 billion February round. Recent private market signals show Anthropic briefly overtaking at $864 billion versus OpenAI's $846 billion, with VC offers exceeding $800 billion and an October IPO eyed as key catalysts for convergence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for Anthropic surpassing OpenAI's valuation by year-end 2026, driven primarily by Anthropic's annualized revenue run-rate exploding to $30 billion by early April—eclipsing OpenAI's $25 billion—fueled by enterprise demand for Claude models and lower training costs. OpenAI's $852 billion March funding valuation faces growing investor scrutiny amid a pivot to enterprise markets and projected $14 billion 2026 losses, contrasting Anthropic's efficient fundamentals post its $380 billion February round. Recent private market signals show Anthropic briefly overtaking at $864 billion versus OpenAI's $846 billion, with VC offers exceeding $800 billion and an October IPO eyed as key catalysts for convergence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,786Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for Anthropic surpassing OpenAI's valuation by year-end 2026, driven primarily by Anthropic's annualized revenue run-rate exploding to $30 billion by early April—eclipsing OpenAI's $25 billion—fueled by enterprise demand for Claude models and lower training costs. OpenAI's $852 billion March funding valuation faces growing investor scrutiny amid a pivot to enterprise markets and projected $14 billion 2026 losses, contrasting Anthropic's efficient fundamentals post its $380 billion February round. Recent private market signals show Anthropic briefly overtaking at $864 billion versus OpenAI's $846 billion, with VC offers exceeding $800 billion and an October IPO eyed as key catalysts for convergence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,786Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for Anthropic surpassing OpenAI's valuation by year-end 2026, driven primarily by Anthropic's annualized revenue run-rate exploding to $30 billion by early April—eclipsing OpenAI's $25 billion—fueled by enterprise demand for Claude models and lower training costs. OpenAI's $852 billion March funding valuation faces growing investor scrutiny amid a pivot to enterprise markets and projected $14 billion 2026 losses, contrasting Anthropic's efficient fundamentals post its $380 billion February round. Recent private market signals show Anthropic briefly overtaking at $864 billion versus OpenAI's $846 billion, with VC offers exceeding $800 billion and an October IPO eyed as key catalysts for convergence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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