Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts strongly toward Google claiming the third-best AI model by April's end, with 64.5% implied probability, anchored by Gemini 1.5 Pro's recent surge to #3 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Elo ~1279), trailing Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus (#1) and OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo (#2). ByteDance (44.5%) and Zhipu AI's GLM-4 (44.0%) vie closely, propelled by Doubao-Pro's rapid Elo climbs in coding and math evals, while DeepSeek-V2 (41.0%) benefits from open-weight dominance. xAI's Grok-1.5 (41.5%) gains from vision benchmarks, but lower odds for Anthropic (29.5%) reflect their top-two lockout. Volatility persists with 100+ hourly votes reshaping rankings ahead of the snapshot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGoogle 65%
ByteDance 45%
OpenAI 44%
Z.ai 44%

65%

ByteDance
45%

OpenAI
44%

Z.ai
44%

Amazon
43%

xAI
41%

DeepSeek
40%

Anthropic
29%

Baidu
28%

Mistral
28%

Alibaba
27%

Moonshot
27%

Meituan
26%
Google 65%
ByteDance 45%
OpenAI 44%
Z.ai 44%

65%

ByteDance
45%

OpenAI
44%

Z.ai
44%

Amazon
43%

xAI
41%

DeepSeek
40%

Anthropic
29%

Baidu
28%

Mistral
28%

Alibaba
27%

Moonshot
27%

Meituan
26%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts strongly toward Google claiming the third-best AI model by April's end, with 64.5% implied probability, anchored by Gemini 1.5 Pro's recent surge to #3 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Elo ~1279), trailing Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus (#1) and OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo (#2). ByteDance (44.5%) and Zhipu AI's GLM-4 (44.0%) vie closely, propelled by Doubao-Pro's rapid Elo climbs in coding and math evals, while DeepSeek-V2 (41.0%) benefits from open-weight dominance. xAI's Grok-1.5 (41.5%) gains from vision benchmarks, but lower odds for Anthropic (29.5%) reflect their top-two lockout. Volatility persists with 100+ hourly votes reshaping rankings ahead of the snapshot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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