Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.6% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's entrenched #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing Google's newly crowned Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505 Elo) but far ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 and others. This positioning stems from Claude's dominance in coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (80.8%) and real-world agentic tasks, fueled by recent launches of voice mode, persistent memory, and ChatGPT import tools amid explosive app downloads and enterprise adoption. While infrastructure outages signal "success tax" from surging demand, the leaderboard's stability supports strong confidence; realistic challenges include last-minute model drops from OpenAI or xAI, or vote swings in final battles before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,614 Vol.
$525,614 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,614 Vol.
$525,614 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,625 Vol.
98%
xAI
$53,073 Vol.
1%
$121,214 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$151,963 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$39,613 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.6% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's entrenched #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing Google's newly crowned Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505 Elo) but far ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 and others. This positioning stems from Claude's dominance in coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (80.8%) and real-world agentic tasks, fueled by recent launches of voice mode, persistent memory, and ChatGPT import tools amid explosive app downloads and enterprise adoption. While infrastructure outages signal "success tax" from surging demand, the leaderboard's stability supports strong confidence; realistic challenges include last-minute model drops from OpenAI or xAI, or vote swings in final battles before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$525,614Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.6% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's entrenched #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing Google's newly crowned Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505 Elo) but far ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 and others. This positioning stems from Claude's dominance in coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (80.8%) and real-world agentic tasks, fueled by recent launches of voice mode, persistent memory, and ChatGPT import tools amid explosive app downloads and enterprise adoption. While infrastructure outages signal "success tax" from surging demand, the leaderboard's stability supports strong confidence; realistic challenges include last-minute model drops from OpenAI or xAI, or vote swings in final battles before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$525,614Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.6% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's entrenched #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing Google's newly crowned Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505 Elo) but far ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 and others. This positioning stems from Claude's dominance in coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (80.8%) and real-world agentic tasks, fueled by recent launches of voice mode, persistent memory, and ChatGPT import tools amid explosive app downloads and enterprise adoption. While infrastructure outages signal "success tax" from surging demand, the leaderboard's stability supports strong confidence; realistic challenges include last-minute model drops from OpenAI or xAI, or vote swings in final battles before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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