Trader consensus positions Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus as the frontrunner for the second-best AI model by end-April 2024, commanding 58% implied probability on LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo ratings, where it trails only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo preview. Google DeepMind's Gemini 1.5 Pro follows at 19.5%, buoyed by its multimodal capabilities and narrowing gap in recent battles. Meta's Llama 3 launch on April 18 fueled brief hype for its 70B variant, yet insufficient user votes prevented overtaking by month-end. Chinese models like Alibaba's Qwen1.5 and Moonshot's Kimi punch above weight in coding benchmarks but remain outside the top tier in overall arena consensus, reflecting leaderboard snapshot uncertainties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 58%
Google 26%
Alibaba 7%
OpenAI 6%

Anthropic
58%

19%

Alibaba
7%

OpenAI
6%

DeepSeek
3%

Meituan
3%

Moonshot
3%

xAI
3%

Baidu
3%

Amazon
3%

Mistral
3%

ByteDance
2%

Z.ai
2%
Anthropic 58%
Google 26%
Alibaba 7%
OpenAI 6%

Anthropic
58%

19%

Alibaba
7%

OpenAI
6%

DeepSeek
3%

Meituan
3%

Moonshot
3%

xAI
3%

Baidu
3%

Amazon
3%

Mistral
3%

ByteDance
2%

Z.ai
2%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus as the frontrunner for the second-best AI model by end-April 2024, commanding 58% implied probability on LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo ratings, where it trails only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo preview. Google DeepMind's Gemini 1.5 Pro follows at 19.5%, buoyed by its multimodal capabilities and narrowing gap in recent battles. Meta's Llama 3 launch on April 18 fueled brief hype for its 70B variant, yet insufficient user votes prevented overtaking by month-end. Chinese models like Alibaba's Qwen1.5 and Moonshot's Kimi punch above weight in coding benchmarks but remain outside the top tier in overall arena consensus, reflecting leaderboard snapshot uncertainties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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