Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of the 29.0% for a 750B–1T closing market cap—reflecting internal tensions and investor scrutiny following the firm's record $122 billion funding round in late March 2026, which lifted its private valuation to $852 billion. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations over explosive compute spending (projected at $121 billion for 2028), decelerating revenue growth amid an enterprise pivot, and organizational upheaval have fueled doubts on Q4 2026 listing readiness, even as CEO Sam Altman pushes forward with retail share reservations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, alongside cooling public sentiment toward AI data centers, cap upside potential, while regulatory hurdles and cash burn through 2030 heighten uncertainty ahead of any S-1 filing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027 30%
750 Md$–1 Bn$ 22%
1 billion–1,25 billion 14%
1,25 B–1,5 B 11%
$14,113 Vol.
$14,113 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
<500 Md$
7%
500–750 Md$
24%
750 Md$–1 Bn$
22%
1 billion–1,25 billion
18%
1,25 B–1,5 B
11%
1,5 T$+
15%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027
30%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027 30%
750 Md$–1 Bn$ 22%
1 billion–1,25 billion 14%
1,25 B–1,5 B 11%
$14,113 Vol.
$14,113 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
<500 Md$
$62 Vol.
7%
500–750 Md$
$84 Vol.
24%
750 Md$–1 Bn$
$97 Vol.
22%
1 billion–1,25 billion
$2,920 Vol.
18%
1,25 B–1,5 B
$126 Vol.
11%
1,5 T$+
$42 Vol.
15%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027
$10,783 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of the 29.0% for a 750B–1T closing market cap—reflecting internal tensions and investor scrutiny following the firm's record $122 billion funding round in late March 2026, which lifted its private valuation to $852 billion. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations over explosive compute spending (projected at $121 billion for 2028), decelerating revenue growth amid an enterprise pivot, and organizational upheaval have fueled doubts on Q4 2026 listing readiness, even as CEO Sam Altman pushes forward with retail share reservations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, alongside cooling public sentiment toward AI data centers, cap upside potential, while regulatory hurdles and cash burn through 2030 heighten uncertainty ahead of any S-1 filing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$14,113Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of the 29.0% for a 750B–1T closing market cap—reflecting internal tensions and investor scrutiny following the firm's record $122 billion funding round in late March 2026, which lifted its private valuation to $852 billion. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations over explosive compute spending (projected at $121 billion for 2028), decelerating revenue growth amid an enterprise pivot, and organizational upheaval have fueled doubts on Q4 2026 listing readiness, even as CEO Sam Altman pushes forward with retail share reservations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, alongside cooling public sentiment toward AI data centers, cap upside potential, while regulatory hurdles and cash burn through 2030 heighten uncertainty ahead of any S-1 filing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$14,113Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of the 29.0% for a 750B–1T closing market cap—reflecting internal tensions and investor scrutiny following the firm's record $122 billion funding round in late March 2026, which lifted its private valuation to $852 billion. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations over explosive compute spending (projected at $121 billion for 2028), decelerating revenue growth amid an enterprise pivot, and organizational upheaval have fueled doubts on Q4 2026 listing readiness, even as CEO Sam Altman pushes forward with retail share reservations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, alongside cooling public sentiment toward AI data centers, cap upside potential, while regulatory hurdles and cash burn through 2030 heighten uncertainty ahead of any S-1 filing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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