Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a blockbuster OpenAI IPO valuation in the $750B–$1T range at 38.5% implied probability, narrowly edging out no IPO by end-2027 at 31%, driven by recent private rounds pegging the firm at $157B despite capped-profit structures and Microsoft entanglements. Regulatory headwinds, including FTC antitrust scrutiny over the $13B partnership and AI safety mandates, fuel no-IPO bets, while intensifying competition from Anthropic's $18.4B valuation and Google's DeepMind erodes OpenAI's moat on generative models. Key differentiators: profitability ramps via enterprise deals versus bubble-risk in frothy tech multiples; watch Q4 earnings for revenue beats and any for-profit pivot announcements that could catalyze higher buckets like $1T+.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour750 Md$–1 Bn$ 39%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027 31%
1,5 T$+ 27%
500–750 Md$ 20%
$10,711 Vol.
$10,711 Vol.
<500 Md$
7%
500–750 Md$
20%
750 Md$–1 Bn$
39%
1 billion–1,25 billion
17%
1,25 B–1,5 B
16%
1,5 T$+
27%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027
31%
750 Md$–1 Bn$ 39%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027 31%
1,5 T$+ 27%
500–750 Md$ 20%
$10,711 Vol.
$10,711 Vol.
<500 Md$
7%
500–750 Md$
20%
750 Md$–1 Bn$
39%
1 billion–1,25 billion
17%
1,25 B–1,5 B
16%
1,5 T$+
27%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027
31%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a blockbuster OpenAI IPO valuation in the $750B–$1T range at 38.5% implied probability, narrowly edging out no IPO by end-2027 at 31%, driven by recent private rounds pegging the firm at $157B despite capped-profit structures and Microsoft entanglements. Regulatory headwinds, including FTC antitrust scrutiny over the $13B partnership and AI safety mandates, fuel no-IPO bets, while intensifying competition from Anthropic's $18.4B valuation and Google's DeepMind erodes OpenAI's moat on generative models. Key differentiators: profitability ramps via enterprise deals versus bubble-risk in frothy tech multiples; watch Q4 earnings for revenue beats and any for-profit pivot announcements that could catalyze higher buckets like $1T+.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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