Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest between a blockbuster OpenAI IPO market cap of $750B–$1T (37%) and no public listing by December 31, 2027 (30%), reflecting explosive AI growth tempered by structural and regulatory hurdles. Recent private funding talks, including a potential $40B round valuing OpenAI above $300B post-money—up from $157B in October 2024's tender offer—underscore revenue acceleration to $4B annualized run-rate, driven by ChatGPT enterprise adoption and o1 model advancements. However, Microsoft's 49% stake, nonprofit-to-for-profit restructuring complexities, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini fuel "no IPO" odds. Key swing factors include 2025 regulatory clarity on AI safety and unwind of Microsoft ties, with Q1 2025 funding closes as near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour750 Md$–1 Bn$ 37%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027 30%
500–750 Md$ 20%
1 billion–1,25 billion 17%
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
<500 Md$
15%
500–750 Md$
25%
750 Md$–1 Bn$
37%
1 billion–1,25 billion
17%
1,25 B–1,5 B
16%
1,5 T$+
14%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027
30%
750 Md$–1 Bn$ 37%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027 30%
500–750 Md$ 20%
1 billion–1,25 billion 17%
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
<500 Md$
15%
500–750 Md$
25%
750 Md$–1 Bn$
37%
1 billion–1,25 billion
17%
1,25 B–1,5 B
16%
1,5 T$+
14%
Aucune introduction en bourse avant le 31 décembre 2027
30%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest between a blockbuster OpenAI IPO market cap of $750B–$1T (37%) and no public listing by December 31, 2027 (30%), reflecting explosive AI growth tempered by structural and regulatory hurdles. Recent private funding talks, including a potential $40B round valuing OpenAI above $300B post-money—up from $157B in October 2024's tender offer—underscore revenue acceleration to $4B annualized run-rate, driven by ChatGPT enterprise adoption and o1 model advancements. However, Microsoft's 49% stake, nonprofit-to-for-profit restructuring complexities, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini fuel "no IPO" odds. Key swing factors include 2025 regulatory clarity on AI safety and unwind of Microsoft ties, with Q1 2025 funding closes as near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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