OpenAI’s explicit decision to delay any IPO beyond 2026, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment, and regulatory readiness before scaling further, has driven the 95.8% market-implied probability that Anthropic will list first. Anthropic confidentially filed in June and is now targeting a November debut after the U.S. midterms, with revenue run rates projected above $100 billion and a potential $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI, by contrast, has shifted focus to private funding rounds at a $1.4 trillion valuation while its CEO emphasizes “pacing the frontier” on large language model capabilities. Traders view Anthropic’s concrete filing and timeline as far more advanced. Remaining uncertainty stems from possible market volatility, last-minute regulatory scrutiny of AI disclosures, or an unexpectedly swift resolution of OpenAI’s safety milestones that could compress its timeline.