Polymarket's trader consensus prices SpaceX's IPO valuation in a dead heat between $1.50-1.75 trillion (28.5%) and $1.75-2.00 trillion (28.5%), reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game bets on hyper-growth from the firm's recent $350 billion private market cap—up 67% from June via strong employee tender demand. Starlink drives sentiment with over 4 million subscribers and $10 billion+ annual revenue run-rate, outpacing rivals through low-latency global broadband dominance, while Starship's Flight 5 successes (October 2024) signal reusable launch scalability versus Blue Origin's delays. Differentiators include NASA/DoD contracts and mega-constellation approvals; swing factors are Flight 6 outcomes and Elon Musk's timeline for Starlink maturity before any listing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour1,50-1,75 T 29%
1,75-2,00 T 29%
2,00-2,25 T 13%
1,25-1,50T 10.3%
$29,712 Vol.
$29,712 Vol.
<1,25T
6%
1,25-1,50T
10%
1,50-1,75 T
29%
1,75-2,00 T
29%
2,00-2,25 T
13%
2,25-2,50 T
9%
2,50 T+
7%
1,50-1,75 T 29%
1,75-2,00 T 29%
2,00-2,25 T 13%
1,25-1,50T 10.3%
$29,712 Vol.
$29,712 Vol.
<1,25T
6%
1,25-1,50T
10%
1,50-1,75 T
29%
1,75-2,00 T
29%
2,00-2,25 T
13%
2,25-2,50 T
9%
2,50 T+
7%
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's trader consensus prices SpaceX's IPO valuation in a dead heat between $1.50-1.75 trillion (28.5%) and $1.75-2.00 trillion (28.5%), reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game bets on hyper-growth from the firm's recent $350 billion private market cap—up 67% from June via strong employee tender demand. Starlink drives sentiment with over 4 million subscribers and $10 billion+ annual revenue run-rate, outpacing rivals through low-latency global broadband dominance, while Starship's Flight 5 successes (October 2024) signal reusable launch scalability versus Blue Origin's delays. Differentiators include NASA/DoD contracts and mega-constellation approvals; swing factors are Flight 6 outcomes and Elon Musk's timeline for Starlink maturity before any listing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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